Track record
Updated . Picks recorded since Oct 7, 2026.
Since Oct 7, 2026, Tennis Gauge's top value plays are 35-43 (45% winners). A flat $100 on every pick would be +$2,007 (+25.7% return on money risked). Across 4,839 graded matches, the model's favorite won 68.0% of the time; the sportsbook favorite won 68.6%.
- Value plays35-4345% winners
- Flat $100 per pick+$2,007+20.1u
- Return on risk+25.7%avg odds +145
- Model favorite won68.0%book favorite 68.6%
The sample is still small. A few dozen picks can swing a long way either way by luck alone, so read these numbers as an early look, not a verdict.
Running profit, $100 per value play
How the model's favorites have done
Across 4,839 finished matches on the daily slate, the model's favorite won 68.0% of the time and the sportsbook favorite won 68.6%. They disagreed on 789 of those matches, and the model's pick won 48% of the disagreements. Sportsbooks are hard to beat at picking winners. Value comes from the price, which is why the value plays are judged on profit rather than win rate.
Is the model's percentage honest?
When the model gives a player a certain chance, that player should win about that often. Bars closer to the dotted line mean better-calibrated numbers.
| Model said | Matches | Expected wins | Actual wins | Expected vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 1,512 | 55% | 55% | |
| 60–70% | 1,149 | 65% | 60% | |
| 70–80% | 1,213 | 75% | 69% | |
| 80–90% | 1,005 | 85% | 80% | |
| 90–100% | 619 | 94% | 89% |
Value plays by month and tour
| Record | Win % | $100 per pick | Return | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 0-0 | – | $0 | – |
| October 2026 | 35-43 | 45% | +$2,007 | +25.7% |
| ATP matches | 16-15 | 52% | +$1,085 | +35.0% |
| WTA matches | 19-28 | 40% | +$921 | +19.6% |
Every value play
The most recent 60 picks, newest first, including 15 still waiting on a result.
| Date | Pick | Opponent | Odds | Model | Result | $100 bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Nuno Borges | Jan Lennard Struff | -103 | 65% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Ava Esposito Cogan | Joanna Kennedy | +115 | 67% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Amelie Smejkalova | Lani Chang | -111 | 76% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Sehaj Singh Pawar | Owen Guistwite | +175 | 64% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Bianca Andreescu | Diletta Cherubini | +966 | 92% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Nuno Borges | Jan Lennard Struff | -103 | 65% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Ava Esposito Cogan | Joanna Kennedy | +115 | 67% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Amelie Smejkalova | Lani Chang | -111 | 76% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Sehaj Singh Pawar | Owen Guistwite | +175 | 64% | Pending Preview | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Bianca Andreescu | Diletta Cherubini | +966 | 92% | Pending Preview | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Nuno Borges | Jan Lennard Struff | -103 | 65% | Pending Preview | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Ava Esposito Cogan | Joanna Kennedy | +115 | 67% | Pending Preview | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Amelie Smejkalova | Lani Chang | -111 | 76% | Pending Preview | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sehaj Singh Pawar | Owen Guistwite | +175 | 64% | Pending Preview | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bianca Andreescu | Diletta Cherubini | +966 | 92% | Pending Preview | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Anna Kubareva | Ekaterina Dotsenko | +149 | 82% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Adhithya Ganesan | Alexander Eriksson | +140 | 86% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Kylie Collins | Connie Ma | +193 | 85% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Briana Szabo | Gloriana Nahum | +201 | 76% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Bianca Andreescu | Diletta Cherubini | +966 | 92% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Aruzhan Sagandikova | Violet Apisah | +162 | 66% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Anna Kubareva | Ekaterina Dotsenko | +149 | 82% | Won 6-3, 6-0 Preview | +$149 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Adhithya Ganesan | Alexander Eriksson | +140 | 86% | Won 7-5, 7-6 Preview | +$140 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Kylie Collins | Connie Ma | +193 | 85% | Lost 6-2, 6-2 Preview | -$100 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Briana Szabo | Gloriana Nahum | +201 | 76% | Lost 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 Preview | -$100 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Erika Sema | Mio Mushika | +118 | 65% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Simone Massellani | Rocco Piatti | +114 | 71% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Sada Nahimana | Manon Leonard | +168 | 63% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi | Kristijan Juhas | +150 | 66% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Miho Kuramochi | Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso | +144 | 77% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Erika Sema | Mio Mushika | +118 | 65% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Simone Massellani | Rocco Piatti | +114 | 71% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Sada Nahimana | Manon Leonard | +168 | 63% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi | Kristijan Juhas | +150 | 66% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Miho Kuramochi | Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso | +144 | 77% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Erika Sema | Mio Mushika | +118 | 65% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Simone Massellani | Rocco Piatti | +114 | 71% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Sada Nahimana | Manon Leonard | +168 | 63% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi | Kristijan Juhas | +150 | 66% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Miho Kuramochi | Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso | +144 | 77% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Erika Sema | Mio Mushika | +118 | 65% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Simone Massellani | Rocco Piatti | +114 | 71% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sada Nahimana | Manon Leonard | +168 | 63% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi | Kristijan Juhas | +150 | 66% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Miho Kuramochi | Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso | +144 | 77% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Erika Sema | Mio Mushika | +118 | 65% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Simone Massellani | Rocco Piatti | +114 | 71% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sada Nahimana | Manon Leonard | +168 | 63% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi | Kristijan Juhas | +150 | 66% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Miho Kuramochi | Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso | +144 | 77% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Erika Sema | Mio Mushika | +118 | 65% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Simone Massellani | Rocco Piatti | +114 | 71% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Sada Nahimana | Manon Leonard | +168 | 63% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi | Kristijan Juhas | +150 | 66% | Won 5-3 Preview | +$150 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Miho Kuramochi | Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso | +144 | 77% | No result Preview | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Erika Sema | Mio Mushika | +118 | 65% | Lost 6-1, 6-2 Preview | -$100 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Simone Massellani | Rocco Piatti | +114 | 71% | Won 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 Preview | +$114 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sada Nahimana | Manon Leonard | +168 | 63% | Lost 6-4, 6-1 Preview | -$100 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi | Kristijan Juhas | +150 | 66% | Won 5-3 Preview | +$150 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Miho Kuramochi | Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso | +144 | 77% | Lost 7-6, 6-1 Preview | -$100 |
How picks are graded
- Only picks published before the match count. Each day's picks are saved when the site updates, then matched to results as they come in. Nothing is recalculated afterwards or added retroactively.
- Value plays are the daily Top Value Plays list: the model gives a player at least 60%, the odds are -120 or longer, and the top 5 by value score each day are kept.
- Profit assumes $100 on each pick at the odds shown when it was published. Real prices move, and sportsbooks differ.
- No result means no completed match was found within 3 days, usually a walkover or retirement before play. Those picks are left out of the record, the same way a sportsbook voids them.
Past results don't predict future ones. How the model works · Expected value calculator · Bet responsibly