Manon Leonard vs Sada Nahimana
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Sada Nahimana, giving them a 63% chance to win against Manon Leonard (37%). They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Leonard is 7-3 in their last 10, Nahimana 5-5. At +168, the odds imply 37% for Sada Nahimana, below the model's 63%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Sada Nahimana a 63% favorite. At +168 the sportsbook implies 37% for Sada Nahimana, 26 points below the model's 63%.
Model minus book: -34 pts
Model minus book: +26 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Sada Nahimana at +168 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Manon Leonard | Sada Nahimana | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6724 | 6682 |
| Tour rank | WTA #262 | WTA #299 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 8-3 | 4-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 30-31 | 25-22 |
| UTR | 11.16 | 11.51 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1335 | 1450 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Hard |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Manon Leonard | 6-4, 6-1 | France Cherbourg En Cotentin |
| 13.05.2026 | Sada Nahimana | 6-1, 6-7, 6-2 | Croatia Zagreb |
Recent form
Manon Leonard, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Veronika Podrez | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 28.10.2026 | Amandine Hesse | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Katarina Zavatska | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| 23.10.2026 | Jessika Ponchet | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 22.10.2026 | Sada Nahimana | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Salma Djoubri | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Alicia Dudeney | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jessika Ponchet | W | 5-7, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jessika Ponchet | W | 5-7, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 15.10.2026 | Jodie Burrage | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
Sada Nahimana, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Harmony Tan | L | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 27.10.2026 | Stephanie Judith Visscher | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 22.10.2026 | Manon Leonard | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 20.10.2026 | Matilde Jorge | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 07.10.2026 | Andre Lukosiute | L | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 03.10.2026 | Isis Louise Van Den Broek | L | 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 02.10.2026 | Diana Martynov | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alina Nesmianovych | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 29.09.2026 | Hajar Crinebouch | W | 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
| 02.09.2026 | Francesca Pace | L | 6-1, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Manon Leonard | Sada Nahimana |
|---|---|---|
| Ana Sofia Sanchez | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-7, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-1 |
| Francesca Curmi | 0-1 L 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 1-0 |
| Isis Louise Van Den Broek | 0-1 L 1-6, 6-1, 6-0 |
1-1 L 6-4, 1-6, 6-4, W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Lucie Nguyen Tan | 1-1 W 6-2, 6-1, L 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Maria Martinez Vaquero | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-0 |
| Matilde Jorge | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
| Stephanie Judith Visscher | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-27: WTA Cherbourg En Cotentin (France), model gave Manon Leonard 37% at -238
- 2026-10-26: WTA Cherbourg En Cotentin (France), model gave Manon Leonard 37% at -238
- 2026-10-25: WTA Cherbourg En Cotentin (France), model gave Manon Leonard 37% at -238
- 2026-10-24: WTA Cherbourg En Cotentin (France), model gave Manon Leonard 37% at -238
- 2026-10-23: WTA Cherbourg En Cotentin (France), model gave Manon Leonard 37% at -238
- 2026-10-22: WTA Cherbourg En Cotentin (France), model gave Manon Leonard 37% at -238
- 2026-10-21: WTA Cherbourg En Cotentin (France), model gave Manon Leonard 37% at -238
Manon Leonard vs Sada Nahimana: quick answers
Who will win Manon Leonard vs Sada Nahimana?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Sada Nahimana, giving them a 63% chance to win against Manon Leonard (37%).
What is the head-to-head record between Manon Leonard and Sada Nahimana?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 22, 2026, won by Manon Leonard 6-4, 6-1 at France Cherbourg En Cotentin.
Who is in better form, Manon Leonard or Sada Nahimana?
Manon Leonard is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Sada Nahimana is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Manon Leonard and Sada Nahimana?
Manon Leonard is rated 6724 (WTA #262) and Sada Nahimana is rated 6682 (WTA #299). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Manon Leonard vs Sada Nahimana?
Manon Leonard is priced at -238 and Sada Nahimana at +168, which implies a 70% and 37% chance to win. The model rates Sada Nahimana 26 points higher than the odds do (63% vs 37%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.