How Tennis Gauge works

Tennis Gauge does two things. It rates every ATP and WTA player from their recent results, and it compares those ratings with sportsbook odds to find matches where the price looks wrong.

Player ratings

Each completed match moves a player's rating up or down. Every result is judged against what was expected, so the size of the move depends on:

• Who they played. The opponent's rating sets the expectation. Beating a strong player is worth more than beating a weak one, and a narrow win over a much weaker player can even lower a rating.
• The score. The set score is factored in, not just who won.
• How recent it was. Recent matches count more than older ones. Player pages list every match from the past year with its effect on the rating.

On a player page, Effect is how many points a match added or took away, and % of Ranking is how much weight that match carries right now. Green rows helped the rating and red rows hurt it.

Model win chance

For each match on today's slate, the model compares the two players' strength and turns the gap into a win chance for each of them. A large gap gives the stronger player a high chance; two evenly matched players land near 50%.

What the odds say

Sportsbook odds can be turned into the chance of winning that the book is implying. That lets us put the book's view and the model's view on the same scale.

The two players' implied chances usually add up to a bit more than 100%. That extra is the sportsbook's margin, and it's one reason a bet has to be clearly underpriced to be worth considering. The odds converter and no-vig calculator do this math for any price.

Value score

The value score is the model's win chance minus the book's implied chance.

A positive score means the model rates the player's chances higher than the price does. A score near zero means the model and the book agree. On the daily matches page, the score is shown from player 1's side, so a large negative number points to value on player 2.

How the top value plays are picked

The Top Value Plays list shows matches where the model and the book disagree the most about who should win. A match makes the list when:

• the model gives one player at least a 60% chance to win, and
• the sportsbook prices that same player at -120 or longer (for example -110, +100, +200 or +400).

The matches that qualify are ranked by value score and the top 5 are shown. The list is rebuilt each time the site updates with new odds. Every published pick is graded on the track record page.

Reading the tables

Rating

The player's current Tennis Gauge rating. Higher is stronger.

Rating Diff

Player 1's rating minus player 2's. Positive means player 1 is rated higher.

Last 10

Wins and losses in the player's last 10 matches.

Streak

The player's current run of consecutive wins or losses.

H2H

Head-to-head record between the two players, from player 1's side.

What the model can't see

Ratings come from results, so the model doesn't know about injuries, illness, travel, late withdrawals or a player who has little reason to try hard. Players with only a few recorded matches, and lower-level events and exhibitions, give the model less to work with. Odds also move during the day, so check the current price before acting on anything here.