Eli Stephenson vs Nicolas Arseneault
Updated
Eli Stephenson beat Nicolas Arseneault 6-2, 1-0, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Nicolas Arseneault at 71%. Eli Stephenson leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Stephenson is 7-3 in their last 10, Arseneault 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Nicolas Arseneault a 71% favorite. At +306 the sportsbook implies 25% for Eli Stephenson, 5 points below the model's 29%.
Model minus book: +5 pts
Model minus book: -16 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Eli Stephenson at +306 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Eli Stephenson | Nicolas Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6372 | 6398 |
| Tour rank | ATP #886 | ATP #788 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 27-20 | 28-24 |
| UTR | 13.48 | 13.73 |
Head to head
Eli Stephenson leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Eli Stephenson | 6-2, 1-0 | USA Lexington |
Recent form
Eli Stephenson, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Jack Anthrop | L | 6-0, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 21.10.2026 | Jonah Braswell | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 17.10.2026 | Jack Anthrop | L | 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Noah Zamora | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Nicolas Arseneault | W | 6-2, 1-0 |
| 14.10.2026 | Michael Bassem Sobhy | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 11.10.2026 | Nour Fathalla | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Birtan Duran | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Mikkel Zinder | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
Nicolas Arseneault, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10.2026 | Rodrigo Fernandes | L | 6-1, 3-1 |
| 22.10.2026 | Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar | W | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tomasz Berkieta | W | 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 15.10.2026 | Eli Stephenson | L | 6-2, 1-0 |
| 14.10.2026 | Duje Markovina | W | 6-3, 6-7, 6-4 |
| 26.09.2026 | Roger Pascual Ferra | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 25.09.2026 | Viktor Markov | W | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 25.09.2026 | Rodrigo Fernandes | W | 6-3, 6-7, 6-4 |
| 24.09.2026 | Aryan Shah | W | 7-6, 6-0 |
| 23.09.2026 | Jeremy Zhang | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Eli Stephenson | Nicolas Arseneault |
|---|---|---|
| Henry Jefferson | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-1 |
| Jack Anthrop | 0-2 L 6-0, 3-6, 6-3, L 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-2 |
| Jonah Braswell | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Lukas Palovic | 1-0 W 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: ATP Lexington (X) (USA), model gave Eli Stephenson 29% at +306
Eli Stephenson vs Nicolas Arseneault: quick answers
Who won Eli Stephenson vs Nicolas Arseneault?
Eli Stephenson beat Nicolas Arseneault 6-2, 1-0, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Nicolas Arseneault at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eli Stephenson and Nicolas Arseneault?
Eli Stephenson leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Eli Stephenson 6-2, 1-0 at USA Lexington.
Who is in better form, Eli Stephenson or Nicolas Arseneault?
Eli Stephenson is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Nicolas Arseneault is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Eli Stephenson and Nicolas Arseneault?
Eli Stephenson is rated 6372 (ATP #886) and Nicolas Arseneault is rated 6398 (ATP #788). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Eli Stephenson vs Nicolas Arseneault?
Eli Stephenson is priced at +306 and Nicolas Arseneault at -625, which implies a 25% and 86% chance to win. The model rates Eli Stephenson 5 points higher than the odds do (29% vs 25%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.