Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny
Updated
Sebastian Gorzny beat Quinn Vandecasteele 7-5, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Sebastian Gorzny leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Vandecasteele is 3-7 in their last 10, Gorzny 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Sebastian Gorzny a 53% favorite. At +160 the sportsbook implies 38% for Quinn Vandecasteele, 8 points below the model's 47%.
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model minus book: -17 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Quinn Vandecasteele at +160 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Quinn Vandecasteele | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6530 | 6627 |
| Tour rank | ATP #471 | ATP #312 |
| Last 10 matches | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Current streak | 3 Losses | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 36-32 | 37-24 |
| UTR | 14.09 | 14.37 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1468 | 1494 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Sebastian Gorzny leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Sebastian Gorzny | 7-5, 6-4 | USA Austin |
| 19.07.2026 | Sebastian Gorzny | 6-3, 7-6 | USA Bloomfield Hills |
Recent form
Quinn Vandecasteele, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10.2026 | Daniil Ostapenkov | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Michael Antonius | L | 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Sebastian Gorzny | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Aryan Shah | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 28.09.2026 | Daniil Ostapenkov | L | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 27.09.2026 | Preston Stearns | W | 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 20.09.2026 | Daniil Ostapenkov | L | 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 14.09.2026 | Bryce Nakashima | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 13.09.2026 | Noah Zamora | W | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 24.08.2026 | James Duckworth | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
Sebastian Gorzny, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Darwin Blanch | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 20.10.2026 | Igor Ribeiro Marcondes | L | 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Alastair Gray | L | 5-7, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 15.10.2026 | Quinn Vandecasteele | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Edward Winter | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 24.09.2026 | Tristan Boyer | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 22.09.2026 | Mitchell Krueger | W | 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
| 21.09.2026 | Andrew Johnson | W | 7-5, 6-0 |
| 21.09.2026 | Aidan Mayo | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 19.09.2026 | J J Wolf | L | 7-6, 1-6, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Quinn Vandecasteele | Sebastian Gorzny |
|---|---|---|
| Aidan Kim | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-0 |
| Aidan Mayo | 0-1 L 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Borna Gojo | 0-2 L 6-3, 6-7, 7-5, L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-1 W 6-4, 2-6, 7-6, L 6-2, 6-2 |
| Cruz Hewitt | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
0-1 L 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| Gavin Young | 0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 5-7, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Joshua Sheehy | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
| Kenta Miyoshi | 0-1 L 6-3, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Matthew Forbes | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Maxwell Exsted | 0-1 L 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-1, 2-0 |
| Olaf Pieczkowski | 0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: ATP Austin (USA), model gave Quinn Vandecasteele 47% at +160
Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny: quick answers
Who won Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Sebastian Gorzny beat Quinn Vandecasteele 7-5, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Quinn Vandecasteele and Sebastian Gorzny?
Sebastian Gorzny leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Sebastian Gorzny 7-5, 6-4 at USA Austin.
Who is in better form, Quinn Vandecasteele or Sebastian Gorzny?
Quinn Vandecasteele is 3-7 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 3 Losses). Sebastian Gorzny is 5-5 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Quinn Vandecasteele and Sebastian Gorzny?
Quinn Vandecasteele is rated 6530 (ATP #471) and Sebastian Gorzny is rated 6627 (ATP #312). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Quinn Vandecasteele is priced at +160 and Sebastian Gorzny at -244, which implies a 38% and 71% chance to win. The model rates Quinn Vandecasteele 8 points higher than the odds do (47% vs 38%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.