Alejandro Moreno vs Adrien Jonah Abarca
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Alejandro Moreno, giving them a 61% chance to win against Adrien Jonah Abarca (39%). Alejandro Moreno leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Moreno is 6-4 in their last 10, Abarca 1-9. At 0, the odds imply -0% for Alejandro Moreno, below the model's 61%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Alejandro Moreno a 61% favorite. At 0 the sportsbook implies -0% for Alejandro Moreno, 61 points below the model's 61%.
Model minus book: +61 pts
Model minus book: +29 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Alejandro Moreno at 0 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Alejandro Moreno | Adrien Jonah Abarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6163 | 5896 |
| Tour rank | ATP #1802 | ATP #3587 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 1-9 |
| Last 30 days | 1-1 | 0-5 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 7 Losses |
| Season record | 21-26 | 28-24 |
| UTR | 13.03 | 12.35 |
Head to head
Alejandro Moreno leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Alejandro Moreno | 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 | USA USA UTR Pro Tennis Series |
Recent form
Alejandro Moreno, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Adrien Jonah Abarca | W | 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
| 28.10.2026 | Thomas Cardona Herrera | W | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Birtan Duran | L | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 28.09.2026 | Hugo Coquelin | L | 6-3, 3-0 |
| 28.09.2026 | Warren Gunnar | W | 6-0, 6-0 |
| 21.09.2026 | Shu Matsuoka | L | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 13.09.2026 | Dmitry Kopilevich | W | 4-2 |
| 12.09.2026 | Martin Doskocil | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 10.09.2026 | Shion Itsusaki | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 09.09.2026 | Joaquin Benoit | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
Adrien Jonah Abarca, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Alejandro Moreno | L | 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
| 28.10.2026 | Birtan Duran | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 27.10.2026 | Thomas Cardona Herrera | L | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Maxim Hristov | L | 2-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Kostiantyn Mantach | L | 2-6, 6-3, 6-0 |
| 04.10.2026 | Zachary Tabaczynski | L | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 13.09.2026 | Denny Bao | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 12.09.2026 | Woodson Mcmillin | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-1 |
| 11.09.2026 | Birtan Duran | L | 6-0, 6-2 |
| 10.09.2026 | Aleksandr Kalinin | L | 6-0, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Alejandro Moreno | Adrien Jonah Abarca |
|---|---|---|
| Birtan Duran | 0-1 L 6-1, 7-6 |
0-2 L 6-2, 6-4, L 6-0, 6-2 |
| Thomas Cardona Herrera | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP USA UTR Pro Tennis Series (exh.) (USA), model gave Alejandro Moreno 61% at 0
Alejandro Moreno vs Adrien Jonah Abarca: quick answers
Who will win Alejandro Moreno vs Adrien Jonah Abarca?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Alejandro Moreno, giving them a 61% chance to win against Adrien Jonah Abarca (39%).
What is the head-to-head record between Alejandro Moreno and Adrien Jonah Abarca?
Alejandro Moreno leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Alejandro Moreno 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 at USA USA UTR Pro Tennis Series.
Who is in better form, Alejandro Moreno or Adrien Jonah Abarca?
Alejandro Moreno is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Adrien Jonah Abarca is 1-9 (current streak: 7 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Alejandro Moreno and Adrien Jonah Abarca?
Alejandro Moreno is rated 6163 (ATP #1802) and Adrien Jonah Abarca is rated 5896 (ATP #3587). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Alejandro Moreno vs Adrien Jonah Abarca?
Alejandro Moreno is priced at 0 and Adrien Jonah Abarca at +888, which implies a -0% and 10% chance to win. The model rates Alejandro Moreno 61 points higher than the odds do (61% vs -0%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.