Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot
Updated
Valentin Vacherot beat Sebastian Baez 6-4, 7-6, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Valentin Vacherot leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Baez is 2-8 in their last 10, Vacherot 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Valentin Vacherot a 65% favorite. At +235 the sportsbook implies 30% for Sebastian Baez, 6 points below the model's 35%.
Model minus book: +6 pts
Model minus book: -11 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Sebastian Baez at +235 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Sebastian Baez | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6860 | 6904 |
| Tour rank | ATP #73 | ATP #39 |
| Last 10 matches | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Current streak | 3 Losses | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 36-34 | 28-19 |
| UTR | 15.45 | 15.94 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1767 | 1845 |
| Best surface | Clay | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Valentin Vacherot leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | 6-4, 7-6 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Sebastian Baez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 20.10.2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Marcos Giron | W | 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Juncheng Shang | L | 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.09.2026 | Jenson Brooksby | L | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 31.08.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | L | 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 |
| 26.08.2026 | Hugo Grenier | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 26.08.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | L | 6-2, 4-0 |
| 24.08.2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | L | 4-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
Valentin Vacherot, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | W | 7-6, 2-6, 7-6 |
| 26.10.2026 | Mariano Navone | W | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 22.10.2026 | Luca Van Assche | L | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Sebastian Baez | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 05.10.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Arthur Fils | W | 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 02.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 30.09.2026 | Alexander Blockx | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 26.09.2026 | Lloyd Harris | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Sebastian Baez | Valentin Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Michelsen | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
| Alexander Bublik | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
| Alexander Shevchenko | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-0, 6-3 |
| Andrey Rublev | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
0-1 L 2-6, 7-6, 10-7 |
| Ben Shelton | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4, 7-6 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 |
0-1 L 2-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Coleman Wong | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-0 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Emilio Nava | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0-2 L 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, L 7-5, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0-1 L 6-2, 4-0 |
1-0 W 5-7, 6-2, 6-1 |
| Lloyd Harris | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | 1-0 W 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-1 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot: quick answers
Who won Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot?
Valentin Vacherot beat Sebastian Baez 6-4, 7-6, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Sebastian Baez and Valentin Vacherot?
Valentin Vacherot leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 10, 2026, won by Valentin Vacherot 6-4, 7-6 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Sebastian Baez or Valentin Vacherot?
Sebastian Baez is 2-8 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 3 Losses). Valentin Vacherot is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Sebastian Baez and Valentin Vacherot?
Sebastian Baez is rated 6860 (ATP #73) and Valentin Vacherot is rated 6904 (ATP #39). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot?
Sebastian Baez is priced at +235 and Valentin Vacherot at -303, which implies a 30% and 75% chance to win. The model rates Sebastian Baez 6 points higher than the odds do (35% vs 30%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.