Pierre Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Sebastian Baez, giving them a 84% chance to win against Pierre Hugues Herbert (16%). Pierre Hugues Herbert leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Herbert is 4-6 in their last 10, Baez 2-8. At +144, the odds imply 41% for Sebastian Baez, below the model's 84%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Sebastian Baez a 84% favorite. At +144 the sportsbook implies 41% for Sebastian Baez, 43 points below the model's 84%.
Model minus book: -46 pts
Model minus book: +43 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Sebastian Baez at +144 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Pierre Hugues Herbert | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6743 | 6860 |
| Tour rank | ATP #163 | ATP #73 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Last 30 days | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 22-24 | 36-34 |
| UTR | 14.36 | 15.45 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1552 | 1743 |
| Best surface | Grass | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Pierre Hugues Herbert leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 6-3, 6-4 | France Lyon |
Recent form
Pierre Hugues Herbert, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Stefano Travaglia | L | 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 22.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | L | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 20.10.2026 | Sebastian Baez | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 19.10.2026 | Maxim Mrva | W | 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 |
| 18.10.2026 | Jurij Rodionov | W | 6-7, 7-5, 6-0 |
| 14.10.2026 | Hugo Gaston | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Norbert Gombos | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 28.09.2026 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 24.08.2026 | Lorenzo Sonego | L | 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 23.08.2026 | Quinn Vandecasteele | L | 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
Sebastian Baez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 20.10.2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Marcos Giron | W | 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Juncheng Shang | L | 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.09.2026 | Jenson Brooksby | L | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 31.08.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | L | 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 |
| 26.08.2026 | Hugo Grenier | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 26.08.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | L | 6-2, 4-0 |
| 24.08.2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | L | 4-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Pierre Hugues Herbert | Sebastian Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harris | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Maxim Mrva | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
| Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-3 |
| Sebastian Ofner | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-5 |
| Taylor Fritz | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
| Titouan Droguet | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Zizou Bergs | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
Pierre Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez: quick answers
Who will win Pierre Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Sebastian Baez, giving them a 84% chance to win against Pierre Hugues Herbert (16%).
What is the head-to-head record between Pierre Hugues Herbert and Sebastian Baez?
Pierre Hugues Herbert leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Pierre Hugues Herbert 6-3, 6-4 at France Lyon.
Who is in better form, Pierre Hugues Herbert or Sebastian Baez?
Pierre Hugues Herbert is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Sebastian Baez is 2-8 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Pierre Hugues Herbert and Sebastian Baez?
Pierre Hugues Herbert is rated 6743 (ATP #163) and Sebastian Baez is rated 6860 (ATP #73). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Pierre Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez?
Pierre Hugues Herbert is priced at -161 and Sebastian Baez at +144, which implies a 62% and 41% chance to win. The model rates Sebastian Baez 43 points higher than the odds do (84% vs 41%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.