Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Barrios Vera
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Nicolas Jarry, giving them a 54% chance to win against Tomas Barrios Vera (46%). Nicolas Jarry leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Jarry is 5-5 in their last 10, Vera 5-5. At +125, the odds imply 44% for Nicolas Jarry, below the model's 54%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Nicolas Jarry a 54% favorite. At +125 the sportsbook implies 44% for Nicolas Jarry, 10 points below the model's 54%.
Model minus book: +10 pts
Model minus book: -19 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Nicolas Jarry at +125 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Nicolas Jarry | Tomas Barrios Vera | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6726 | 6729 |
| Tour rank | ATP #182 | ATP #176 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 1-0 | 4-3 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 5-10 | 32-32 |
| UTR | 15.04 | 14.75 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1648 | 1567 |
| Best surface | Grass | Grass |
| Worst surface | Hard | Hard |
Head to head
Nicolas Jarry leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Nicolas Jarry | 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 | Colombia Cali |
Recent form
Nicolas Jarry, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Hugo Dellien | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 22.10.2026 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Tomas Barrios Vera | W | 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 |
| 14.04.2026 | Elmer Moller | W | 6-2, 3-6, 6-0 |
| 11.04.2026 | Jurij Rodionov | L | 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 10.04.2026 | Nerman Fatic | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 09.04.2026 | Dominic Stricker | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 07.04.2026 | Miguel Damas | W | 6-1 |
| 17.03.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 10.03.2026 | Adam Walton | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
Tomas Barrios Vera, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 27.10.2026 | Juan Estevez | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 20.10.2026 | Nicolas Jarry | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 |
| 08.10.2026 | Miguel Tobon | L | 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 06.10.2026 | Franco Roncadelli | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 03.10.2026 | Guido Ivan Justo | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | W | 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 30.09.2026 | Juan Bautista Torres | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 29.09.2026 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 31.08.2026 | Alexander Blockx | L | 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Nicolas Jarry | Tomas Barrios Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Dino Prizmic | 0-1 L 6-3, 5-7, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Hugo Dellien | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
| Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-20: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Nicolas Jarry 54% at +125
Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Barrios Vera: quick answers
Who will win Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Barrios Vera?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Nicolas Jarry, giving them a 54% chance to win against Tomas Barrios Vera (46%).
What is the head-to-head record between Nicolas Jarry and Tomas Barrios Vera?
Nicolas Jarry leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Nicolas Jarry 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 at Colombia Cali.
Who is in better form, Nicolas Jarry or Tomas Barrios Vera?
Nicolas Jarry is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Tomas Barrios Vera is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Nicolas Jarry and Tomas Barrios Vera?
Nicolas Jarry is rated 6726 (ATP #182) and Tomas Barrios Vera is rated 6729 (ATP #176). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Barrios Vera?
Nicolas Jarry is priced at +125 and Tomas Barrios Vera at -179, which implies a 44% and 64% chance to win. The model rates Nicolas Jarry 10 points higher than the odds do (54% vs 44%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.