Nadia Podoroska vs Varvara Lepchenko
Updated
Varvara Lepchenko beat Nadia Podoroska 6-2, 2-6, 6-2, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Nadia Podoroska at 72%. Varvara Lepchenko leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Podoroska is 7-3 in their last 10, Lepchenko 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Nadia Podoroska a 72% favorite. At -204 the sportsbook implies 67% for Nadia Podoroska, 5 points below the model's 72%.
Model minus book: +5 pts
Model minus book: -14 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Nadia Podoroska at -204 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Nadia Podoroska | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6770 | 6780 |
| Tour rank | WTA #225 | WTA #214 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 32-12 | 25-29 |
| UTR | 11.77 | 11.62 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1666 | 1548 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Varvara Lepchenko leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Varvara Lepchenko | 6-2, 2-6, 6-2 | USA Edmond |
Recent form
Nadia Podoroska, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Miriam Bianca Bulgaru | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 28.10.2026 | Alice Rame | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Varvara Lepchenko | L | 6-2, 2-6, 6-2 |
| 21.09.2026 | Kaitlin Quevedo | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 19.09.2026 | Paula Badosa | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 19.09.2026 | Suzan Lamens | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 17.09.2026 | Eva Lys | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 15.09.2026 | Lucrezia Stefanini | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 10.09.2026 | Anna Blinkova | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 08.09.2026 | Ena Koike | W | 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
Varvara Lepchenko, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10.2026 | Cristina Ramos Sierra | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 19.10.2026 | Christasha Mcneil | W | 6-0, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julieta Pareja | L | 6-2, 3-6, 6-0 |
| 14.10.2026 | Nadia Podoroska | W | 6-2, 2-6, 6-2 |
| 29.09.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 28.09.2026 | Ulrikke Eikeri | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 13.09.2026 | Alycia Parks | L | 6-3, 1-6, 7-5 |
| 09.09.2026 | Claire Liu | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 07.9.2026 | Katrina Scott | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.08.2026 | Gabriela Andrea Knutson | L | 6-1, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Nadia Podoroska | Varvara Lepchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Emiliana Arango | 0-1 L 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
| Lucciana Perez Alarcon | 1-1 L 6-4, 2-6, 6-0, W 2-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
| Paula Badosa | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-5, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: WTA Edmond (USA), model gave Nadia Podoroska 72% at -204
Nadia Podoroska vs Varvara Lepchenko: quick answers
Who won Nadia Podoroska vs Varvara Lepchenko?
Varvara Lepchenko beat Nadia Podoroska 6-2, 2-6, 6-2, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Nadia Podoroska at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nadia Podoroska and Varvara Lepchenko?
Varvara Lepchenko leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Varvara Lepchenko 6-2, 2-6, 6-2 at USA Edmond.
Who is in better form, Nadia Podoroska or Varvara Lepchenko?
Nadia Podoroska is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Varvara Lepchenko is 4-6 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Nadia Podoroska and Varvara Lepchenko?
Nadia Podoroska is rated 6770 (WTA #225) and Varvara Lepchenko is rated 6780 (WTA #214). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Nadia Podoroska vs Varvara Lepchenko?
Nadia Podoroska is priced at -204 and Varvara Lepchenko at +141, which implies a 67% and 41% chance to win. The model rates Nadia Podoroska 5 points higher than the odds do (72% vs 67%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.