Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Nicolas Mejia, giving them a 84% chance to win against Miguel Tobon (16%). Miguel Tobon leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Tobon is 6-4 in their last 10, Mejia 3-7. At -323, the odds imply 76% for Nicolas Mejia, below the model's 84%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Nicolas Mejia a 84% favorite. At -323 the sportsbook implies 76% for Nicolas Mejia, 8 points below the model's 84%.
Model minus book: -15 pts
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Nicolas Mejia at -323 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Miguel Tobon | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6599 | 6730 |
| Tour rank | ATP #352 | ATP #175 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Last 30 days | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 31-28 | 41-27 |
| UTR | 14.11 | 14.93 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1328 | 1588 |
| Best surface | Grass | Grass |
| Worst surface | Hard | Hard |
Head to head
Miguel Tobon leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10.2026 | Miguel Tobon | 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 | Colombia Cali |
Recent form
Miguel Tobon, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 26.10.2026 | Daniel Salazar | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 25.10.2026 | Federico Zeballos | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 23.10.2026 | Valerio Aboian | L | 1-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 23.10.2026 | Nicolas Mejia | W | 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | W | 6-1, 2-6, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 08.10.2026 | Tomas Barrios Vera | W | 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 06.10.2026 | Thiago Cigarran | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
| 29.09.2026 | Juan Bautista Torres | L | 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 |
Nicolas Mejia, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10.2026 | Miguel Tobon | L | 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Federico Coria | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 06.10.2026 | Michael Zheng | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Chun Hsin Tseng | W | 6-4 |
| 22.09.2026 | Ugo Blanchet | L | 4-1 |
| 18.09.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 26.08.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 |
| 20.08.2026 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 14.08.2026 | Adam Walton | L | 7-6, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Miguel Tobon | Nicolas Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Martinez | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Bernard Tomic | 0-1 L 5-7, 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-3, 3-0 |
| Facundo Mena | 1-0 W 6-2, 2-6, 6-1 |
1-0 W 7-6, 1-6, 6-2 |
| James Duckworth | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Juan Pablo Ficovich | 2-0 W 6-3, 6-1, W 6-2, 2-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Karl Poling | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Tibo Colson | 0-1 L 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-27: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Miguel Tobon 16% at +223
- 2026-10-26: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Miguel Tobon 16% at +223
- 2026-10-25: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Miguel Tobon 16% at +223
- 2026-10-24: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Miguel Tobon 16% at +223
- 2026-10-23: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Miguel Tobon 16% at +223
- 2026-10-22: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Miguel Tobon 16% at +223
- 2026-10-21: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Miguel Tobon 16% at +223
Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia: quick answers
Who will win Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Nicolas Mejia, giving them a 84% chance to win against Miguel Tobon (16%).
What is the head-to-head record between Miguel Tobon and Nicolas Mejia?
Miguel Tobon leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 23, 2026, won by Miguel Tobon 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 at Colombia Cali.
Who is in better form, Miguel Tobon or Nicolas Mejia?
Miguel Tobon is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Nicolas Mejia is 3-7 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Miguel Tobon and Nicolas Mejia?
Miguel Tobon is rated 6599 (ATP #352) and Nicolas Mejia is rated 6730 (ATP #175). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia?
Miguel Tobon is priced at +223 and Nicolas Mejia at -323, which implies a 31% and 76% chance to win. The model rates Nicolas Mejia 8 points higher than the odds do (84% vs 76%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.