Mia Pohankova vs Naomi Osaka
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Naomi Osaka, giving them a 85% chance to win against Mia Pohankova (15%). Mia Pohankova leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Pohankova is 7-3 in their last 10, Osaka 7-3. At -286, the odds imply 74% for Naomi Osaka, below the model's 85%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Naomi Osaka a 85% favorite. At -286 the sportsbook implies 74% for Naomi Osaka, 11 points below the model's 85%.
Model minus book: -20 pts
Model minus book: +11 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Naomi Osaka at -286 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Mia Pohankova | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6925 | 7130 |
| Tour rank | WTA #102 | WTA #14 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 31-16 | 32-15 |
| UTR | 11.83 | 12.82 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1697 | 2020 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Mia Pohankova leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Mia Pohankova | 6-3, 7-5 | Japan Tokyo |
Recent form
Mia Pohankova, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Naomi Osaka | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 27.10.2026 | Tereza Valentova | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Maria Sakkari | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Xiyu Wang | W | 7-6, 6-7, 6-1 |
| 12.10.2026 | Anna Bondar | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 26.09.2026 | Maria Timofeeva | L | 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 25.09.2026 | Katie Swan | W | 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 |
| 24.09.2026 | Veronika Podrez | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 22.09.2026 | Francisca Jorge | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 19.09.2026 | Gabriela Andrea Knutson | L | 7-5, 5-7, 6-3 |
Naomi Osaka, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Mia Pohankova | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 27.10.2026 | Jasmine Paolini | W | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 06.10.2026 | Karolina Muchova | L | 7-5, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 04.10.2026 | Sara Bejlek | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 02.10.2026 | Maria Timofeeva | W | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 07.9.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 06.09.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 |
| 03.09.2026 | Katerina Siniakova | W | 6-2, 5-7, 6-1 |
| 01.09.2026 | Anastasia Zakharova | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 12.08.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Mia Pohankova | Naomi Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Katie Swan | 1-0 W 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-1 |
| Maria Sakkari | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Maria Timofeeva | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: WTA Tokyo (Pan Pacific Open) (Japan), model gave Mia Pohankova 15% at +190
Mia Pohankova vs Naomi Osaka: quick answers
Who will win Mia Pohankova vs Naomi Osaka?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Naomi Osaka, giving them a 85% chance to win against Mia Pohankova (15%).
What is the head-to-head record between Mia Pohankova and Naomi Osaka?
Mia Pohankova leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Mia Pohankova 6-3, 7-5 at Japan Tokyo.
Who is in better form, Mia Pohankova or Naomi Osaka?
Mia Pohankova is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Naomi Osaka is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Mia Pohankova and Naomi Osaka?
Mia Pohankova is rated 6925 (WTA #102) and Naomi Osaka is rated 7130 (WTA #14). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Mia Pohankova vs Naomi Osaka?
Mia Pohankova is priced at +190 and Naomi Osaka at -286, which implies a 34% and 74% chance to win. The model rates Naomi Osaka 11 points higher than the odds do (85% vs 74%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.