Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matteo Martineau
Updated
Matteo Martineau beat Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 7-5, 7-6, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at 83%. Matteo Martineau leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Kjaer is 6-4 in their last 10, Martineau 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Nicolai Budkov Kjaer a 83% favorite. At -278 the sportsbook implies 74% for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, 9 points below the model's 83%.
Model minus book: +9 pts
Model minus book: -14 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at -278 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6762 | 6630 |
| Tour rank | ATP #146 | ATP #309 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 36-35 | 42-36 |
| UTR | 14.46 | 13.99 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1579 | 1374 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Clay |
Head to head
Matteo Martineau leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Matteo Martineau | 7-5, 7-6 | France Roanne |
Recent form
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Federico Cina | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 27.10.2026 | Kilian Feldbausch | W | 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 19.10.2026 | Clement Tabur | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 18.10.2026 | Ugo Blanchet | W | 3-6, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 17.10.2026 | Matteo Martineau | L | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Hugo Gaston | W | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 15.10.2026 | Moise Kouame | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Jakub Paul | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 01.10.2026 | Felix Balshaw | L | 7-5, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 29.09.2026 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
Matteo Martineau, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Otto Virtanen | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 21.10.2026 | Thijs Boogaard | L | 7-6, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 18.10.2026 | Mika Brunold | L | 2-6, 7-6, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Etienne Donnet | W | 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Max Schoenhaus | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 28.09.2026 | Clement Tabur | L | 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 24.09.2026 | Daniel Masur | L | 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 |
| 22.09.2026 | Tristan Schoolkate | W | 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | Matteo Martineau |
|---|---|---|
| Clement Tabur | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 |
| Felix Balshaw | 1-1 L 7-5, 4-6, 7-6, W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-7, 6-0 |
| Jesper De Jong | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Otto Virtanen | 2-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-5, W 6-7, 7-6, 6-3, W 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
| Petr Nesterov | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
| Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Sebastian Ofner | 0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-16: ATP Roanne (France), model gave Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 83% at -278
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matteo Martineau: quick answers
Who won Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matteo Martineau?
Matteo Martineau beat Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 7-5, 7-6, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Matteo Martineau?
Matteo Martineau leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 17, 2026, won by Matteo Martineau 7-5, 7-6 at France Roanne.
Who is in better form, Nicolai Budkov Kjaer or Matteo Martineau?
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Matteo Martineau is 5-5 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Matteo Martineau?
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is rated 6762 (ATP #146) and Matteo Martineau is rated 6630 (ATP #309). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matteo Martineau?
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is priced at -278 and Matteo Martineau at +216, which implies a 74% and 32% chance to win. The model rates Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 9 points higher than the odds do (83% vs 74%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.