Matteo Covato vs Mwendwa Mbithi
Updated
Matteo Covato beat Mwendwa Mbithi 6-4, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Mwendwa Mbithi at 81%. Matteo Covato leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Covato is 5-5 in their last 10, Mbithi 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mwendwa Mbithi a 81% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -11 pts
Model minus book: 0 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mwendwa Mbithi at -435 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matteo Covato | Mwendwa Mbithi | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6206 | 6267 |
| Tour rank | ATP #1567 | ATP #1293 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Current streak | 3 Losses | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 17-34 | 21-17 |
| UTR | 12.18 | 13.38 |
Head to head
Matteo Covato leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08.10.2026 | Matteo Covato | 6-4, 6-4 | Ecuador Quito |
Recent form
Matteo Covato, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Maxwell Benson | L | 6-7, 7-6, 0-1 |
| 18.10.2026 | Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Ivan Dreycopp | L | 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 |
| 14.10.2026 | Emilio Camacho | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 10.10.2026 | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 09.10.2026 | Felipe De Dios | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Mwendwa Mbithi | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 06.10.2026 | Dakotah Bobo | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 24.09.2026 | Stefan Seifert | L | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 22.09.2026 | Victor Barrere | W | 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 |
Mwendwa Mbithi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Daniel Salazar | W | 6-3, 6-7, 3-0 |
| 15.10.2026 | Lorenzo Claverie | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 13.10.2026 | Darwin Andres Macias Elizalde | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 08.10.2026 | Matteo Covato | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 06.10.2026 | Juan Sebastian Dominguez Collado | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 30.07.2026 | Niels Peter Van Noord | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 29.07.2026 | Andres Delgadillo | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 25.07.2026 | Alvin Nicholas Tudorica | L | 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 24.07.2026 | Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matteo Covato | Mwendwa Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Salazar | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-7, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-7, 3-0 |
| Felipe De Dios | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Lucas Andrade Da Silva | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
Matteo Covato vs Mwendwa Mbithi: quick answers
Who won Matteo Covato vs Mwendwa Mbithi?
Matteo Covato beat Mwendwa Mbithi 6-4, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Mwendwa Mbithi at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Matteo Covato and Mwendwa Mbithi?
Matteo Covato leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 8, 2026, won by Matteo Covato 6-4, 6-4 at Ecuador Quito.
Who is in better form, Matteo Covato or Mwendwa Mbithi?
Matteo Covato is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 3 Losses). Mwendwa Mbithi is 6-4 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matteo Covato and Mwendwa Mbithi?
Matteo Covato is rated 6206 (ATP #1567) and Mwendwa Mbithi is rated 6267 (ATP #1293). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matteo Covato vs Mwendwa Mbithi?
Matteo Covato is priced at +244 and Mwendwa Mbithi at -435, which implies a 29% and 81% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.