Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz
Updated
Taylor Fritz beat Matteo Arnaldi 7-5, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Taylor Fritz leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Arnaldi is 3-7 in their last 10, Fritz 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Taylor Fritz a 74% favorite. At +448 the sportsbook implies 18% for Matteo Arnaldi, 8 points below the model's 26%.
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model minus book: -12 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Matteo Arnaldi at +448 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matteo Arnaldi | Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6859 | 6955 |
| Tour rank | ATP #76 | ATP #11 |
| Last 10 matches | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Current streak | 3 Losses | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 20-20 | 40-23 |
| UTR | 15.77 | 16.13 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1755 | 1952 |
| Best surface | Clay | Grass |
| Worst surface | Grass | Clay |
Head to head
Taylor Fritz leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | 7-5, 6-4 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Matteo Arnaldi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Luciano Darderi | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Bernard Tomic | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 03.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 30.09.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | W | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 31.08.2026 | James Duckworth | L | 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 15.08.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 07.08.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | L | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 05.08.2026 | Fabian Marozsan | W | 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 |
Taylor Fritz, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Denis Shapovalov | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 28.10.2026 | Rinky Hijikata | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 25.10.2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Daniel Altmaier | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 22.10.2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 12.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | L | 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 10.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Jaume Munar | L | 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 26.09.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 6-3, 4-6, 13-11 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matteo Arnaldi | Taylor Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Alex De Minaur | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
0-2 L 6-3, 4-6, 13-11, L 6-7, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Dusan Lajovic | 0-1 L 6-0, 3-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Fabian Marozsan | 1-0 W 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-7, 3-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
0-2 L 6-4, 6-4, L 4-6, 6-4, 10-8 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 7-6 |
| Jaume Munar | 1-0 W 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
1-1 L 6-7, 6-4, 6-3, W 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 0-2 L 6-1, 6-4, L 6-0, 3-1 |
1-2 L 6-3, 6-4, L 6-2, 7-5, 6-4, W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Martin Landaluce | 0-1 L 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-7, 7-5, 7-6 |
| Rafael Jodar | 0-1 L 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
2-0 W 7-6, 6-4, W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1-0 W 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2 |
0-2 L 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, L 6-4, 7-5 |
| Vit Kopriva | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-4, 7-6 |
Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz: quick answers
Who won Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz?
Taylor Fritz beat Matteo Arnaldi 7-5, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Taylor Fritz?
Taylor Fritz leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 10, 2026, won by Taylor Fritz 7-5, 6-4 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Matteo Arnaldi or Taylor Fritz?
Matteo Arnaldi is 3-7 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 3 Losses). Taylor Fritz is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matteo Arnaldi and Taylor Fritz?
Matteo Arnaldi is rated 6859 (ATP #76) and Taylor Fritz is rated 6955 (ATP #11). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz?
Matteo Arnaldi is priced at +448 and Taylor Fritz at -625, which implies a 18% and 86% chance to win. The model rates Matteo Arnaldi 8 points higher than the odds do (26% vs 18%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.