Matt Ponchet vs Theo Herrmann
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Matt Ponchet, giving them a 74% chance to win against Theo Herrmann (26%). Matt Ponchet leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Ponchet is 4-6 in their last 10, Herrmann 4-6. At -196, the odds imply 66% for Matt Ponchet, below the model's 74%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Matt Ponchet a 74% favorite. At -196 the sportsbook implies 66% for Matt Ponchet, 8 points below the model's 74%.
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model minus book: -16 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Matt Ponchet at -196 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matt Ponchet | Theo Herrmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6375 | 6282 |
| Tour rank | ATP #872 | ATP #1225 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 1-0 | 2-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Win | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 16-21 | 23-18 |
| UTR | 13.1 | 13.16 |
Head to head
Matt Ponchet leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Matt Ponchet | 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 | France Sarreguemines |
Recent form
Matt Ponchet, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Martin Krumich | W | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 28.10.2026 | Paul Jubb | L | 5-7, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Stijn Pel | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 22.10.2026 | Arthur Nagel | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Theo Herrmann | W | 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 08.09.2026 | Mickael Kaouk | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 23.08.2026 | Inaki Montes De La Torre | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 16.08.2026 | Marcus Walters | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 31.07.2026 | Conor Gannon | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 30.07.2026 | Ammar Elamin | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
Theo Herrmann, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Matt Ponchet | L | 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 25.09.2026 | Flynn Thomas | L | 6-3, 5-7, 7-5 |
| 24.09.2026 | Niklas Schell | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 22.09.2026 | Adan Freire Da Silva | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 08.09.2026 | Kasra Rahmani | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 02.09.2026 | Roan Jones | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 29.07.2026 | Pierre Delage | L | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 27.07.2026 | Yannick Castelnuovo | W | 1-6, 5-7 |
| 26.07.2026 | Julius Hacker | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 27.06.2026 | Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matt Ponchet | Theo Herrmann |
|---|---|---|
| Conor Gannon | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-2 |
| Romain Andres | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
Matt Ponchet vs Theo Herrmann: quick answers
Who will win Matt Ponchet vs Theo Herrmann?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Matt Ponchet, giving them a 74% chance to win against Theo Herrmann (26%).
What is the head-to-head record between Matt Ponchet and Theo Herrmann?
Matt Ponchet leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Matt Ponchet 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 at France Sarreguemines.
Who is in better form, Matt Ponchet or Theo Herrmann?
Matt Ponchet is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Win). Theo Herrmann is 4-6 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matt Ponchet and Theo Herrmann?
Matt Ponchet is rated 6375 (ATP #872) and Theo Herrmann is rated 6282 (ATP #1225). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matt Ponchet vs Theo Herrmann?
Matt Ponchet is priced at -196 and Theo Herrmann at +135, which implies a 66% and 43% chance to win. The model rates Matt Ponchet 8 points higher than the odds do (74% vs 66%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.