Matilde Paoletti vs Sofia Shapatava
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Matilde Paoletti, giving them a 82% chance to win against Sofia Shapatava (18%). Paoletti is 5-5 in their last 10, Shapatava 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Matilde Paoletti a 82% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -7 pts
Model minus book: 0 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Matilde Paoletti at -833 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matilde Paoletti | Sofia Shapatava | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6573 | 6449 |
| Tour rank | WTA #436 | WTA #635 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 4 Losses |
| Season record | 16-12 | 28-35 |
| UTR | 11.38 | 10.62 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | – | 1163 |
| Best surface | – | Clay |
| Worst surface | – | Grass |
Head to head
Matilde Paoletti and Sofia Shapatava haven't played each other in our records.
Recent form
Matilde Paoletti, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Ginevra Parentini Vallega Montebruno | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jessica Pieri | L | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jessica Pieri | L | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 15.10.2026 | Chiara Fornasieri | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 14.10.2026 | Giulia Paterno | W | 6-0, 6-0 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | L | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Eva Bennemann | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 07.10.2026 | Francesca Gandolfi | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 18.09.2026 | Alisa Oktiabreva | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
Sofia Shapatava, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | L | 7-6, 4-3 |
| 23.09.2026 | Alisa Oktiabreva | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 16.09.2026 | Laura Boehner | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 12.09.2026 | Angelica Raggi | L | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 11.09.2026 | Chiara Fornasieri | W | 0-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 09.09.2026 | Alja Senica | W | 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 04.09.2026 | Francesca Gandolfi | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 03.09.2026 | Daniela Vismane | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 02.09.2026 | Cecilia Manitto | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 24.08.2026 | Laura Mair | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matilde Paoletti | Sofia Shapatava |
|---|---|---|
| Alessandra Mazzola | 0-2 L 7-6, 7-6, L 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 7-6, 4-3 |
| Alisa Oktiabreva | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
| Chiara Fornasieri | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 0-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| Francesca Gandolfi | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
| Gabriela Ce | 0-1 L 6-1, 7-5 |
0-1 L 1-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) (Italy), model gave Matilde Paoletti 82% at -833
Matilde Paoletti vs Sofia Shapatava: quick answers
Who will win Matilde Paoletti vs Sofia Shapatava?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Matilde Paoletti, giving them a 82% chance to win against Sofia Shapatava (18%).
Have Matilde Paoletti and Sofia Shapatava played before?
Not in Tennis Gauge's records. This would be their first recorded meeting.
Who is in better form, Matilde Paoletti or Sofia Shapatava?
Matilde Paoletti is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Sofia Shapatava is 4-6 (current streak: 4 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matilde Paoletti and Sofia Shapatava?
Matilde Paoletti is rated 6573 (WTA #436) and Sofia Shapatava is rated 6449 (WTA #635). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matilde Paoletti vs Sofia Shapatava?
Matilde Paoletti is priced at -833 and Sofia Shapatava at +472, which implies a 89% and 17% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.