Matias Soto vs Samuel Heredia
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Matias Soto, giving them a 93% chance to win against Samuel Heredia (7%). Matias Soto leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Soto is 3-7 in their last 10, Heredia 2-8. At -400, the odds imply 80% for Matias Soto, below the model's 93%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Matias Soto a 93% favorite. At -400 the sportsbook implies 80% for Matias Soto, 13 points below the model's 93%.
Model minus book: +13 pts
Model minus book: -22 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Matias Soto at -400 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matias Soto | Samuel Heredia | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6542 | 6389 |
| Tour rank | ATP #438 | ATP #823 |
| Last 10 matches | 3-7 | 2-8 |
| Last 30 days | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Win | 4 Losses |
| Season record | 36-24 | 29-31 |
| UTR | 14.1 | 13.14 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1420 | 1089 |
| Best surface | Clay | Hard |
| Worst surface | Hard | Clay |
Head to head
Matias Soto leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Matias Soto | 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 | Colombia Cali |
Recent form
Matias Soto, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Lance Amaury Lage Castelan | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 22.10.2026 | Valerio Aboian | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 20.10.2026 | Samuel Heredia | W | 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 06.10.2026 | Thiago Seyboth Wild | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 29.09.2026 | Lautaro Midon | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 20.09.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 11.09.2026 | Vitaliy Sachko | L | 6-3, 1-6, 6-2 |
| 09.09.2026 | Marvin Moeller | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-0 |
| 07.9.2026 | Sandro Kopp | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 01.09.2026 | Kilian Feldbausch | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
Samuel Heredia, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Matias Soto | L | 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 11.10.2026 | Federico Zeballos | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Eduardo Ribeiro | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 30.09.2026 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 28.09.2026 | Juan Sebastian Osorio | W | 7-6, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 27.09.2026 | Leonardo Storck Franca | W | 3-6, 6-3, 6-1 |
| 19.09.2026 | Jesper De Jong | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 18.08.2026 | Laslo Djere | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 04.08.2026 | Luca Potenza | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 20.07.2026 | Massimo Giunta | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matias Soto | Samuel Heredia |
|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Monferrer | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-4, 7-6, W 6-1, 6-1 |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
| Ignacio Monzon | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Juan Sebastian Osorio | 1-1 W 6-2, 3-6, 6-2, L 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Lorenzo Claverie | 1-0 W 7-5, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-7, 6-1 |
| Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Oleksii Krutykh | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Valerio Aboian | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-1, 7-5 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-20: ATP Cali (VII) (Colombia), model gave Matias Soto 93% at -400
Matias Soto vs Samuel Heredia: quick answers
Who will win Matias Soto vs Samuel Heredia?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Matias Soto, giving them a 93% chance to win against Samuel Heredia (7%).
What is the head-to-head record between Matias Soto and Samuel Heredia?
Matias Soto leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Matias Soto 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 at Colombia Cali.
Who is in better form, Matias Soto or Samuel Heredia?
Matias Soto is 3-7 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Win). Samuel Heredia is 2-8 (current streak: 4 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matias Soto and Samuel Heredia?
Matias Soto is rated 6542 (ATP #438) and Samuel Heredia is rated 6389 (ATP #823). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matias Soto vs Samuel Heredia?
Matias Soto is priced at -400 and Samuel Heredia at +250, which implies a 80% and 29% chance to win. The model rates Matias Soto 13 points higher than the odds do (93% vs 80%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.