Mary Stoiana vs Rinko Matsuda
Updated
Mary Stoiana beat Rinko Matsuda 6-3, 7-6, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Mary Stoiana leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Stoiana is 7-3 in their last 10, Matsuda 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mary Stoiana a 97% favorite. At -1111 the sportsbook implies 92% for Mary Stoiana, 6 points below the model's 97%.
Model minus book: +6 pts
Model minus book: -15 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mary Stoiana at -1111 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Mary Stoiana | Rinko Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6874 | 6509 |
| Tour rank | WTA #133 | WTA #532 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 4 Losses |
| Season record | 57-27 | 48-25 |
| UTR | 12.16 | 11.01 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1712 | – |
| Best surface | Grass | – |
| Worst surface | Clay | – |
Head to head
Mary Stoiana leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Mary Stoiana | 6-3, 7-6 | Japan Osaka |
Recent form
Mary Stoiana, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10.2026 | Katerina Siniakova | L | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 22.10.2026 | Moyuka Uchijima | W | 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 |
| 20.10.2026 | Oleksandra Oliynykova | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 18.10.2026 | Sayaka Ishii | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 17.10.2026 | Rinko Matsuda | W | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 01.10.2026 | Hanna Chang | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Julieta Pareja | L | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 18.09.2026 | Paula Badosa | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 17.09.2026 | Dominika Salkova | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 16.09.2026 | Claire Liu | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
Rinko Matsuda, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Mary Stoiana | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 04.10.2026 | Sijia Wei | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 28.09.2026 | Katarzyna Kawa | L | 7-6, 2-6, 6-3 |
| 24.09.2026 | Sakura Hosogi | L | 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 22.09.2026 | Ikumi Yamazaki | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 19.09.2026 | Hiromi Abe | L | 6-1, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 18.09.2026 | Natsumi Kawaguchi | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 17.09.2026 | Hina Inoue | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 15.09.2026 | Ayumi Miyamoto | W | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 31.08.2026 | Shiyu Ye | L | 6-2, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Mary Stoiana | Rinko Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Hanna Chang | 2-0 W 6-3, 6-4, W 3-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 |
| Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 0-2 L 3-6, 6-2, 7-5, L 2-6, 6-4, 7-5 |
1-0 W 2-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-16: WTA Osaka (IX) (Japan), model gave Mary Stoiana 97% at -1111
Mary Stoiana vs Rinko Matsuda: quick answers
Who won Mary Stoiana vs Rinko Matsuda?
Mary Stoiana beat Rinko Matsuda 6-3, 7-6, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Mary Stoiana and Rinko Matsuda?
Mary Stoiana leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 17, 2026, won by Mary Stoiana 6-3, 7-6 at Japan Osaka.
Who is in better form, Mary Stoiana or Rinko Matsuda?
Mary Stoiana is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Rinko Matsuda is 4-6 (current streak: 4 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Mary Stoiana and Rinko Matsuda?
Mary Stoiana is rated 6874 (WTA #133) and Rinko Matsuda is rated 6509 (WTA #532). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Mary Stoiana vs Rinko Matsuda?
Mary Stoiana is priced at -1111 and Rinko Matsuda at +488, which implies a 92% and 17% chance to win. The model rates Mary Stoiana 6 points higher than the odds do (97% vs 92%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.