Yosuke Watanuki vs Marin Cilic
Updated
Yosuke Watanuki beat Marin Cilic 7-5, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Marin Cilic at 88%. Yosuke Watanuki leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Watanuki is 5-5 in their last 10, Cilic 2-8.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Marin Cilic a 88% favorite. At -192 the sportsbook implies 66% for Marin Cilic, 22 points below the model's 88%.
Model minus book: -30 pts
Model minus book: +22 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Marin Cilic at -192 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Yosuke Watanuki | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6707 | 6866 |
| Tour rank | ATP #208 | ATP #66 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Last 30 days | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 18-17 | 15-20 |
| UTR | 14.38 | 15.71 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1526 | 1789 |
| Best surface | Grass | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Yosuke Watanuki leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Yosuke Watanuki | 7-5, 6-4 | China Jinan |
Recent form
Yosuke Watanuki, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10.2026 | Shintaro Mochizuki | L | 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Shintaro Mochizuki | L | 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 15.10.2026 | Marin Cilic | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Andre Ilagan | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Kaito Uesugi | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 11.10.2026 | Semen Pankin | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
| 30.09.2026 | Coleman Wong | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 07.9.2026 | Marat Sharipov | L | 6-7, 7-5, 6-2 |
| 02.09.2026 | Chun Hsin Tseng | L | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 31.08.2026 | Semen Pankin | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
Marin Cilic, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Zhizhen Zhang | L | 7-6, 2-6, 6-3 |
| 19.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | L | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Yosuke Watanuki | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Adam Walton | W | 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 |
| 07.10.2026 | Arthur Fery | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 15.08.2026 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | L | 3-6, 6-1, 6-1 |
| 05.08.2026 | Frances Tiafoe | L | 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 04.08.2026 | Sho Shimabukuro | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 29.06.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 |
| 16.06.2026 | Ugo Humbert | L | 7-5, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: ATP Jinan (China), model gave Yosuke Watanuki 12% at +136
Yosuke Watanuki vs Marin Cilic: quick answers
Who won Yosuke Watanuki vs Marin Cilic?
Yosuke Watanuki beat Marin Cilic 7-5, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Marin Cilic at 88%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yosuke Watanuki and Marin Cilic?
Yosuke Watanuki leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Yosuke Watanuki 7-5, 6-4 at China Jinan.
Who is in better form, Yosuke Watanuki or Marin Cilic?
Yosuke Watanuki is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Marin Cilic is 2-8 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Yosuke Watanuki and Marin Cilic?
Yosuke Watanuki is rated 6707 (ATP #208) and Marin Cilic is rated 6866 (ATP #66). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Yosuke Watanuki vs Marin Cilic?
Yosuke Watanuki is priced at +136 and Marin Cilic at -192, which implies a 42% and 66% chance to win. The model rates Marin Cilic 22 points higher than the odds do (88% vs 66%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.