Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Updated
Pablo Carreno Busta beat Mariano Navone 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Mariano Navone at 61%. Pablo Carreno Busta leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Navone is 3-7 in their last 10, Busta 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mariano Navone a 61% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: 0 pts
Model minus book: -5 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mariano Navone at -152 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Mariano Navone | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6916 | 6902 |
| Tour rank | ATP #28 | ATP #41 |
| Last 10 matches | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 31-27 | 33-25 |
| UTR | 15.89 | 15.71 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1821 | 1768 |
| Best surface | Clay | Clay |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Pablo Carreno Busta leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08.10.2026 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Mariano Navone, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 20.10.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 08.10.2026 | Pablo Carreno Busta | L | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 04.09.2026 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | L | 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 03.09.2026 | Matteo Berrettini | W | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 31.08.2026 | Novak Djokovic | W | 7-6, 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 25.08.2026 | James Duckworth | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 15.08.2026 | Alexander Blockx | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
Pablo Carreno Busta, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Felix Auger Aliassime | L | 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Mariano Navone | W | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 29.09.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 28.09.2026 | Yi Zhou | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 30.08.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | L | 6-1, 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 24.08.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L | 6-4, 3-0 |
| 16.08.2026 | Andrey Rublev | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Mariano Navone | Pablo Carreno Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1-0 W 5-7, 7-6, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-5 |
0-1 L 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
| Denis Shapovalov | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-3, 7-6, W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| Jakub Mensik | 0-1 L 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
0-2 L 7-5, 4-6, 2-6, 7-6, 6-3, L 7-5, 6-4 |
| Jan Lennard Struff | 1-0 W 6-0, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
| Matteo Berrettini | 2-1 W 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6, W 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, L 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Mattia Bellucci | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 |
| Quentin Halys | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 0-1 L 7-6, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Valentin Royer | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 1-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
| Vit Kopriva | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-0, 3-1 |
0-1 L 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 |
Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta: quick answers
Who won Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Pablo Carreno Busta beat Mariano Navone 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Mariano Navone at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariano Navone and Pablo Carreno Busta?
Pablo Carreno Busta leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 8, 2026, won by Pablo Carreno Busta 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Mariano Navone or Pablo Carreno Busta?
Mariano Navone is 3-7 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-6 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Mariano Navone and Pablo Carreno Busta?
Mariano Navone is rated 6916 (ATP #28) and Pablo Carreno Busta is rated 6902 (ATP #41). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Mariano Navone is priced at -152 and Pablo Carreno Busta at +123, which implies a 60% and 45% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.