Matilde Mariani vs Maria Toma
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Maria Toma, giving them a 60% chance to win against Matilde Mariani (40%). Matilde Mariani leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Mariani is 5-5 in their last 10, Toma 3-7.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Maria Toma a 60% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -5 pts
Model minus book: -4 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Maria Toma at -179 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matilde Mariani | Maria Toma | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6225 | 6356 |
| Tour rank | WTA #1227 | WTA #840 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Last 30 days | 6-5 | 3-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 54-41 | 27-28 |
| UTR | 10.12 | 10.46 |
Head to head
Matilde Mariani leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Matilde Mariani | 5-7, 6-3, 10-8 | Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula |
Recent form
Matilde Mariani, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10.2026 | Despina Papamichail | L | 6-0, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 20.10.2026 | Maria Toma | W | 5-7, 6-3, 10-8 |
| 19.10.2026 | Antoinette Chastang Cooper | W | 6-0, 6-0 |
| 17.10.2026 | Kristina Nordikyan | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Elena Goodman | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Chiara Fornasieri | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 14.10.2026 | Marley Lambert | L | 7-5, 6-0 |
| 13.10.2026 | Kristina Nordikyan | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 12.10.2026 | Judit Hernandez Miranda | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Nicole Andrea Molaro | L | 6-4, 4-4 |
Maria Toma, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Matilde Mariani | L | 5-7, 6-3, 10-8 |
| 19.10.2026 | Galatea Ferro | W | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 14.10.2026 | Noemi Maines | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Laura Boehner | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 06.10.2026 | Agnese Gentili | L | 6-4, 6-7, 12-10 |
| 05.10.2026 | Benedetta Ortenzi | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 20.09.2026 | Aneta Laboutkova | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 16.09.2026 | Matilde Paoletti | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 06.09.2026 | Iveta Dapkute | L | 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 31.08.2026 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matilde Mariani | Maria Toma |
|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Cherny | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-0, 6-1 |
| Lan Mi | 1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
Matilde Mariani vs Maria Toma: quick answers
Who will win Matilde Mariani vs Maria Toma?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Maria Toma, giving them a 60% chance to win against Matilde Mariani (40%).
What is the head-to-head record between Matilde Mariani and Maria Toma?
Matilde Mariani leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Matilde Mariani 5-7, 6-3, 10-8 at Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula.
Who is in better form, Matilde Mariani or Maria Toma?
Matilde Mariani is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Maria Toma is 3-7 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matilde Mariani and Maria Toma?
Matilde Mariani is rated 6225 (WTA #1227) and Maria Toma is rated 6356 (WTA #840). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matilde Mariani vs Maria Toma?
Matilde Mariani is priced at +123 and Maria Toma at -179, which implies a 45% and 64% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.