Maria Sakkari vs Marta Kostyuk
Updated
Maria Sakkari beat Marta Kostyuk 4-6, 6-2, 6-2, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Marta Kostyuk at 80%. Maria Sakkari leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Sakkari is 6-4 in their last 10, Kostyuk 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Marta Kostyuk a 80% favorite. At -208 the sportsbook implies 68% for Marta Kostyuk, 12 points below the model's 80%.
Model minus book: -17 pts
Model minus book: +12 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Marta Kostyuk at -208 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Maria Sakkari | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7067 | 7143 |
| Tour rank | WTA #37 | WTA #11 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 4 Losses |
| Season record | 30-22 | 38-14 |
| UTR | 12.38 | 12.94 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1833 | 2048 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Maria Sakkari leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.2026 | Maria Sakkari | 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 | China Wuhan |
Recent form
Maria Sakkari, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Yulia Putintseva | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Maja Chwalinska | L | 6-0, 3-6, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Mia Pohankova | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Marta Kostyuk | W | 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 12.10.2026 | Donna Vekic | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 05.10.2026 | Elina Svitolina | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 03.10.2026 | Storm Hunter | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 25.09.2026 | Talia Gibson | L | 6-1, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 24.09.2026 | Nao Hibino | W | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 22.09.2026 | Linda Fruhvirtova | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
Marta Kostyuk, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | L | 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Maria Sakkari | L | 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 18.09.2026 | Liudmila Samsonova | L | 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 06.09.2026 | Linda Noskova | L | 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 04.09.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 02.09.2026 | Sloane Stephens | W | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 30.08.2026 | Storm Hunter | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 22.08.2026 | Coco Gauff | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 19.08.2026 | Mirra Andreeva | W | 4-6, 6-0, 6-2 |
| 18.08.2026 | Sloane Stephens | W | 7-5, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Maria Sakkari | Marta Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | 0-2 L 6-1, 6-4, L 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-2 |
| Elena Rybakina | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
0-2 L 6-3, 6-4, L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Elina Svitolina | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-5 |
1-1 W 6-3, 2-6, 6-2, L 7-5 |
| Iga Swiatek | 1-2 L 4-6, 6-1, 6-1, L 6-3, 6-2, W 2-6, 6-4, 7-5 |
1-1 L 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, W 7-5, 6-1 |
| Jasmine Paolini | 1-1 L 6-1, 6-2, W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | 2-0 W 6-2, 5-7, 6-1, W 6-3, 0-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Linda Noskova | 1-0 W 7-5, 7-6 |
1-2 L 7-5, 5-7, 6-4, L 6-4, 6-4, W 7-6, 6-0 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 0-1 L 6-0, 6-4 |
3-1 W 4-6, 6-0, 6-2, L 6-1, 6-3, W 6-3, 7-5, W 7-6, 6-3 |
| Paula Badosa | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-1 |
| Storm Hunter | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-1 |
| Tatjana Maria | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-0 |
| Yulia Putintseva | 0-1 L 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 |
2-0 W 6-1, 6-3, W 6-7, 6-1, 6-0 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-12: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Maria Sakkari 20% at +170
Maria Sakkari vs Marta Kostyuk: quick answers
Who won Maria Sakkari vs Marta Kostyuk?
Maria Sakkari beat Marta Kostyuk 4-6, 6-2, 6-2, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Marta Kostyuk at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maria Sakkari and Marta Kostyuk?
Maria Sakkari leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 13, 2026, won by Maria Sakkari 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 at China Wuhan.
Who is in better form, Maria Sakkari or Marta Kostyuk?
Maria Sakkari is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Marta Kostyuk is 5-5 (current streak: 4 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Maria Sakkari and Marta Kostyuk?
Maria Sakkari is rated 7067 (WTA #37) and Marta Kostyuk is rated 7143 (WTA #11). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Maria Sakkari vs Marta Kostyuk?
Maria Sakkari is priced at +170 and Marta Kostyuk at -208, which implies a 37% and 68% chance to win. The model rates Marta Kostyuk 12 points higher than the odds do (80% vs 68%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.