Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Mariella Thamm, giving them a 51% chance to win against Maria Martinez Vaquero (49%). Mariella Thamm leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Thamm is 7-3 in their last 10, Vaquero 2-8. At +285, the odds imply 26% for Maria Martinez Vaquero, below the model's 49%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mariella Thamm a 51% favorite. At +285 the sportsbook implies 26% for Maria Martinez Vaquero, 23 points below the model's 49%.
Model minus book: -32 pts
Model minus book: +23 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Maria Martinez Vaquero at +285 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Mariella Thamm | Maria Martinez Vaquero | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6573 | 6525 |
| Tour rank | WTA #435 | WTA #507 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Last 30 days | 7-1 | 2-4 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 27-9 | 31-31 |
| UTR | 11.13 | 10.99 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | – | 1161 |
| Best surface | – | Hard |
| Worst surface | – | Clay |
Head to head
Mariella Thamm leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Mariella Thamm | 6-4, 6-2 | Portugal Loule |
Recent form
Mariella Thamm, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Angela Fita Boluda | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Maria Martinez Vaquero | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Emma Lene | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 09.10.2026 | Stephanie Judith Visscher | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Clara Vlasselaer | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Manon Leonard | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
| 05.10.2026 | Eunchae Kim | W | 6-0, 6-0 |
| 04.10.2026 | Savine Erler | W | 6-3, 1-0 |
| 25.09.2026 | Nikola Farkasova | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 09.07.2026 | Yihan Qu | L | 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 |
Maria Martinez Vaquero, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Mariella Thamm | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 11.10.2026 | Mathilde Lollia | L | 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 09.10.2026 | Britt Du Pree | L | 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 08.10.2026 | Milana Ivantsiv | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 07.10.2026 | Laia Petretic | W | 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 |
| 30.09.2026 | Naiktha Bains | L | 2-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 20.09.2026 | Sahaja Yamalapalli | L | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 15.09.2026 | Susan Bandecchi | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 09.09.2026 | Anastasia Gasanova | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 31.08.2026 | Zoziya Kardava | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Mariella Thamm | Maria Martinez Vaquero |
|---|---|---|
| Lea Boskovic | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-1 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Manon Leonard | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-3 |
| Nikola Farkasova | 3-0 W 6-2, 6-1, W 0-6, 6-1, 6-0, W 6-0, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Stephanie Judith Visscher | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero: quick answers
Who will win Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Mariella Thamm, giving them a 51% chance to win against Maria Martinez Vaquero (49%).
What is the head-to-head record between Mariella Thamm and Maria Martinez Vaquero?
Mariella Thamm leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Mariella Thamm 6-4, 6-2 at Portugal Loule.
Who is in better form, Mariella Thamm or Maria Martinez Vaquero?
Mariella Thamm is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Maria Martinez Vaquero is 2-8 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Mariella Thamm and Maria Martinez Vaquero?
Mariella Thamm is rated 6573 (WTA #435) and Maria Martinez Vaquero is rated 6525 (WTA #507). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero?
Mariella Thamm is priced at -476 and Maria Martinez Vaquero at +285, which implies a 83% and 26% chance to win. The model rates Maria Martinez Vaquero 23 points higher than the odds do (49% vs 26%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.