Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero

WTA Loule (Portugal), Hard. Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 05:55.

Updated

Tennis Gauge's model favors Mariella Thamm, giving them a 51% chance to win against Maria Martinez Vaquero (49%). Mariella Thamm leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Thamm is 7-3 in their last 10, Vaquero 2-8. At +285, the odds imply 26% for Maria Martinez Vaquero, below the model's 49%.

This preview is from Wednesday, October 21, 2026. The result isn't in the database yet.

Pre-match prediction

The model makes Mariella Thamm a 51% favorite. At +285 the sportsbook implies 26% for Maria Martinez Vaquero, 23 points below the model's 49%.

Model
51%
Book
83%

Model minus book: -32 pts

Model
49%
Book
26%

Model minus book: +23 pts

Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Maria Martinez Vaquero at +285 · Model track record

Player comparison

Mariella ThammMaria Martinez Vaquero
Tennis Gauge rating65736525
Tour rankWTA #435WTA #507
Last 10 matches7-32-8
Last 30 days7-12-4
Current streak1 Loss3 Losses
Season record27-931-31
UTR11.1310.99
Elo (52 weeks)–1161
Best surface–Hard
Worst surface–Clay

Head to head

Mariella Thamm leads 1-0.

DateWinnerScoreTournament
20.10.2026Mariella Thamm6-4, 6-2Portugal Loule

Recent form

Mariella Thamm, last 10

DateOpponentScore
22.10.2026Angela Fita Boluda L6-4, 6-4
20.10.2026Maria Martinez Vaquero W6-4, 6-2
10.10.2026Emma Lene L6-4, 6-3
09.10.2026Stephanie Judith Visscher W7-6, 6-4
08.10.2026Clara Vlasselaer W6-7, 6-1, 6-3
06.10.2026Manon Leonard W6-1, 6-0
05.10.2026Eunchae Kim W6-0, 6-0
04.10.2026Savine Erler W6-3, 1-0
25.09.2026Nikola Farkasova W6-2, 6-1
09.07.2026Yihan Qu L6-2, 4-6, 6-2

Maria Martinez Vaquero, last 10

DateOpponentScore
20.10.2026Mariella Thamm L6-4, 6-2
11.10.2026Mathilde Lollia L3-6, 6-4, 6-2
09.10.2026Britt Du Pree L4-6, 6-2, 6-2
08.10.2026Milana Ivantsiv W6-1, 6-2
07.10.2026Laia Petretic W7-5, 2-6, 6-1
30.09.2026Naiktha Bains L2-6, 6-2, 6-2
20.09.2026Sahaja Yamalapalli L6-0, 6-3
15.09.2026Susan Bandecchi L6-4, 7-5
09.09.2026Anastasia Gasanova L6-4, 6-3
31.08.2026Zoziya Kardava L6-2, 6-1

Common opponents, last 12 months

OpponentMariella ThammMaria Martinez Vaquero
Lea Boskovic 1-0
W 7-5, 6-1
0-1
L 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
Manon Leonard 1-0
W 6-1, 6-0
1-0
W 6-1, 6-3
Nikola Farkasova 3-0
W 6-2, 6-1, W 0-6, 6-1, 6-0, W 6-0, 6-0
1-0
W 6-3, 6-3
Stephanie Judith Visscher 1-0
W 7-6, 6-4
1-0
W 6-4, 6-2

Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero: quick answers

Who will win Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero?

Tennis Gauge's model favors Mariella Thamm, giving them a 51% chance to win against Maria Martinez Vaquero (49%).

What is the head-to-head record between Mariella Thamm and Maria Martinez Vaquero?

Mariella Thamm leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Mariella Thamm 6-4, 6-2 at Portugal Loule.

Who is in better form, Mariella Thamm or Maria Martinez Vaquero?

Mariella Thamm is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Maria Martinez Vaquero is 2-8 (current streak: 3 Losses).

How does Tennis Gauge rate Mariella Thamm and Maria Martinez Vaquero?

Mariella Thamm is rated 6573 (WTA #435) and Maria Martinez Vaquero is rated 6525 (WTA #507). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.

What are the odds for Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero?

Mariella Thamm is priced at -476 and Maria Martinez Vaquero at +285, which implies a 83% and 26% chance to win. The model rates Maria Martinez Vaquero 23 points higher than the odds do (49% vs 26%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.