Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez
Updated
Sebastian Baez beat Marcos Giron 1-6, 6-3, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Sebastian Baez leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Giron is 1-9 in their last 10, Baez 2-8.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Sebastian Baez a 60% favorite. At -132 the sportsbook implies 57% for Sebastian Baez, 3 points below the model's 60%.
Model minus book: -8 pts
Model minus book: +3 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Sebastian Baez at -132 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Marcos Giron | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6837 | 6860 |
| Tour rank | ATP #90 | ATP #73 |
| Last 10 matches | 1-9 | 2-8 |
| Last 30 days | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Current streak | 8 Losses | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 23-29 | 36-34 |
| UTR | 15.25 | 15.45 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1693 | 1767 |
| Best surface | Grass | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Sebastian Baez leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08.10.2026 | Sebastian Baez | 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 | China Shangai - Masters |
| 16.01.2026 | Sebastian Baez | 6-1, 6-4 | New Zealand Auckland |
Recent form
Marcos Giron, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Yannick Hanfmann | L | 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Jan Lennard Struff | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Sebastian Baez | L | 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 28.09.2026 | Jaume Munar | L | 5-7, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 02.09.2026 | Ignacio Buse | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1 |
| 24.08.2026 | Dhakshineswar Suresh | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 13.08.2026 | Henrique Rocha | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 04.08.2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | L | 7-5, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 01.08.2026 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | W | 2-6, 6-3, 6-1 |
| 28.07.2026 | Cruz Hewitt | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
Sebastian Baez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 20.10.2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Marcos Giron | W | 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Juncheng Shang | L | 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.09.2026 | Jenson Brooksby | L | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 31.08.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | L | 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 |
| 26.08.2026 | Hugo Grenier | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 26.08.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | L | 6-2, 4-0 |
| 24.08.2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | L | 4-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Marcos Giron | Sebastian Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Michelsen | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
| Alexander Bublik | 0-1 L 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
| Ben Shelton | 0-2 L 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, L 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-3 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0-1 L 7-5, 4-6, 6-2 |
0-2 L 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, L 7-5, 6-1 |
| Ignacio Buse | 0-2 L 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, L 3-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-3 |
| Jakub Mensik | 0-1 L 7-5, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
| Jan Choinski | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-7, 7-6 |
0-1 L 2-6, 6-3, 1-0 |
| Jan Lennard Struff | 0-1 L 7-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-1, 7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 7-5 |
| Jaume Munar | 0-1 L 5-7, 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Learner Tien | 0-1 L 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
| Luciano Darderi | 1-0 W 1-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
0-3 L 6-4, 6-3, L 7-6, 6-1, L 6-3, 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | 0-1 L 6-3, 2-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 2-6, 7-5, 6-2, 2-0 |
| Taylor Fritz | 0-1 L 6-4, 5-7, 7-6 |
1-0 W 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | 0-2 L 6-2, 5-7, 6-4, L 6-4, 6-7, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-1 |
Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez: quick answers
Who won Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez?
Sebastian Baez beat Marcos Giron 1-6, 6-3, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Marcos Giron and Sebastian Baez?
Sebastian Baez leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 8, 2026, won by Sebastian Baez 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Marcos Giron or Sebastian Baez?
Marcos Giron is 1-9 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 8 Losses). Sebastian Baez is 2-8 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Marcos Giron and Sebastian Baez?
Marcos Giron is rated 6837 (ATP #90) and Sebastian Baez is rated 6860 (ATP #73). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez?
Marcos Giron is priced at +108 and Sebastian Baez at -132, which implies a 48% and 57% chance to win. The model rates Sebastian Baez 3 points higher than the odds do (60% vs 57%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.