Tennis Gauge

Luka Talan Lopatic vs Mathieu Scaglia

ATP Heraklion (XI) I (Greece), Hard. Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 02:00.

Updated

Luka Talan Lopatic beat Mathieu Scaglia 7-5, 6-1, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Mathieu Scaglia at 73%. Luka Talan Lopatic leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Lopatic is 7-3 in their last 10, Scaglia 4-6.

Result: Luka Talan Lopatic beat Mathieu Scaglia 7-5, 6-1. An upset by the model's numbers: it favored Mathieu Scaglia.

Pre-match prediction

The model makes Mathieu Scaglia a 73% favorite. At -116 the sportsbook implies 54% for Mathieu Scaglia, 19 points below the model's 73%.

Luka Talan Lopatic -122
Model
27%
Book
55%

Model minus book: -27 pts

Mathieu Scaglia -116
Model
73%
Book
54%

Model minus book: +19 pts

Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mathieu Scaglia at -116 · Model track record

Player comparison

Luka Talan LopaticMathieu Scaglia
Tennis Gauge rating63786352
Tour rankATP #865ATP #947
Last 10 matches7-34-6
Last 30 days2-21-2
Current streak1 Loss3 Losses
Season record32-2317-19
UTR13.0913.2

Head to head

Luka Talan Lopatic leads 1-0.

DateWinnerScoreTournament
13.10.2026Luka Talan Lopatic7-5, 6-1Greece Heraklion

Recent form

Luka Talan Lopatic, last 10

DateOpponentScore
23.10.2026Ioannis Xilas L6-4, 6-3
22.10.2026Ewen Lumsden W1-6, 6-2, 6-1
20.10.2026Ammar Elamin W6-1, 6-2
18.10.2026Ioannis Xilas W6-7, 6-3, 6-4
18.10.2026Amit Vales L6-2, 6-3
17.10.2026Nikita Bilozertsev W6-3, 5-3
16.10.2026Marcus Walters W6-2, 6-2
16.10.2026Marcus Walters W6-2, 6-2
13.10.2026Mathieu Scaglia W7-5, 6-1
06.10.2026Matei Florin Breazu L7-6, 7-5

Mathieu Scaglia, last 10

DateOpponentScore
28.10.2026Daniel Masur L6-7, 7-5, 6-3
13.10.2026Luka Talan Lopatic L7-5, 6-1
08.10.2026Finn Murgett L6-0, 4-6, 6-1
07.10.2026Henri Haupt W6-1, 6-2
16.09.2026Lucca Liu L6-4, 6-4
08.09.2026Robin Bertrand L6-2, 6-4
07.9.2026Pierre Antoine Tailleu W7-6, 2-6, 7-6
06.09.2026Amit Vales W4-6, 6-2, 7-6
28.08.2026Pierre Delage L6-3, 2-6, 7-6
27.08.2026Jaume Casas Blasi W6-7, 6-3, 6-2

Common opponents, last 12 months

OpponentLuka Talan LopaticMathieu Scaglia
Amit Vales 0-1
L 6-2, 6-3		 1-0
W 4-6, 6-2, 7-6
Izan Almazan Valiente 0-1
L 6-3, 6-4		 0-1
L 6-3, 6-1

Earlier previews of this matchup

  • 2026-10-12: ATP Heraklion (XI) I (Greece), model gave Luka Talan Lopatic 27% at -122

Luka Talan Lopatic vs Mathieu Scaglia: quick answers

Who won Luka Talan Lopatic vs Mathieu Scaglia?

Luka Talan Lopatic beat Mathieu Scaglia 7-5, 6-1, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Mathieu Scaglia at 73%.

What is the head-to-head record between Luka Talan Lopatic and Mathieu Scaglia?

Luka Talan Lopatic leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 13, 2026, won by Luka Talan Lopatic 7-5, 6-1 at Greece Heraklion.

Who is in better form, Luka Talan Lopatic or Mathieu Scaglia?

Luka Talan Lopatic is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Mathieu Scaglia is 4-6 (current streak: 3 Losses).

How does Tennis Gauge rate Luka Talan Lopatic and Mathieu Scaglia?

Luka Talan Lopatic is rated 6378 (ATP #865) and Mathieu Scaglia is rated 6352 (ATP #947). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.

What are the odds for Luka Talan Lopatic vs Mathieu Scaglia?

Luka Talan Lopatic is priced at -122 and Mathieu Scaglia at -116, which implies a 55% and 54% chance to win. The model rates Mathieu Scaglia 19 points higher than the odds do (73% vs 54%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.

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