Luka Pavlovic vs Mattia Bellucci
Updated
Mattia Bellucci beat Luka Pavlovic 6-4, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Mattia Bellucci leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Pavlovic is 7-3 in their last 10, Bellucci 8-2.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mattia Bellucci a 85% favorite. At -417 the sportsbook implies 81% for Mattia Bellucci, 4 points below the model's 85%.
Model minus book: -11 pts
Model minus book: +4 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mattia Bellucci at -417 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Luka Pavlovic | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6606 | 6864 |
| Tour rank | ATP #345 | ATP #70 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 8-5 | 9-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 35-30 | 42-29 |
| UTR | 14.35 | 15.6 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1505 | 1714 |
| Best surface | Grass | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Mattia Bellucci leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | 6-4, 6-4 | China Jinan |
Recent form
Luka Pavlovic, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Tristan Schoolkate | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Kangyuan Shi | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 11.10.2026 | Thomas Fancutt | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 05.10.2026 | Ilia Simakin | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Lloyd Harris | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 29.09.2026 | Akira Santillan | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 27.09.2026 | Gabriel Elicha Navas | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 26.09.2026 | Marcin Andrzejczak | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 23.09.2026 | Noble Renfrow | W | 6-0, 7-6 |
Mattia Bellucci, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Terence Atmane | L | 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W | 7-6, 2-6, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | W | 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 17.10.2026 | Shintaro Mochizuki | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Alexander Shevchenko | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Alexander Shevchenko | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Luka Pavlovic | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Elias Ymer | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 07.10.2026 | Yi Zhou | L | 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 06.10.2026 | Alexandre Muller | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Luka Pavlovic | Mattia Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | 1-0 W 6-3, 7-5 |
2-0 W 7-5, 6-2, W 6-3, 7-5 |
| Alexandre Muller | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-2, W 6-0, 6-3 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | 1-0 W 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Lloyd Harris | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 1-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| Yanki Erel | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Yi Zhou | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: ATP Jinan (China), model gave Luka Pavlovic 15% at +276
Luka Pavlovic vs Mattia Bellucci: quick answers
Who won Luka Pavlovic vs Mattia Bellucci?
Mattia Bellucci beat Luka Pavlovic 6-4, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Luka Pavlovic and Mattia Bellucci?
Mattia Bellucci leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Mattia Bellucci 6-4, 6-4 at China Jinan.
Who is in better form, Luka Pavlovic or Mattia Bellucci?
Luka Pavlovic is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Mattia Bellucci is 8-2 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Luka Pavlovic and Mattia Bellucci?
Luka Pavlovic is rated 6606 (ATP #345) and Mattia Bellucci is rated 6864 (ATP #70). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Luka Pavlovic vs Mattia Bellucci?
Luka Pavlovic is priced at +276 and Mattia Bellucci at -417, which implies a 27% and 81% chance to win. The model rates Mattia Bellucci 4 points higher than the odds do (85% vs 81%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.