Tennis Gauge

Lui Maxted vs Roger Pascual Ferra

ATP Austin (USA), Hard. Thursday, October 15, 2026, 08:00.

Updated

Lui Maxted beat Roger Pascual Ferra 6-0, 6-1, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Roger Pascual Ferra at 62%. Lui Maxted leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Maxted is 6-4 in their last 10, Ferra 7-3.

Result: Lui Maxted beat Roger Pascual Ferra 6-0, 6-1. An upset by the model's numbers: it favored Roger Pascual Ferra.

Pre-match prediction

The model makes Roger Pascual Ferra a 62% favorite. At -141 the sportsbook implies 59% for Roger Pascual Ferra, 4 points below the model's 62%.

Lui Maxted +100
Model
38%
Book
50%

Model minus book: -12 pts

Roger Pascual Ferra -141
Model
62%
Book
59%

Model minus book: +4 pts

Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Roger Pascual Ferra at -141 · Model track record

Player comparison

Lui MaxtedRoger Pascual Ferra
Tennis Gauge rating65316531
Tour rankATP #468ATP #467
Last 10 matches6-47-3
Last 30 days6-31-0
Current streak2 Wins2 Losses
Season record39-2443-14
UTR13.8714.17
Elo (52 weeks)1333–
Best surfaceGrass–
Worst surfaceClay–

Head to head

Lui Maxted leads 1-0.

DateWinnerScoreTournament
15.10.2026Lui Maxted6-0, 6-1USA Austin

Recent form

Lui Maxted, last 10

DateOpponentScore
29.10.2026Ilya Snitari W7-6, 4-6, 6-3
27.10.2026Pablo Martinez Gomez W6-4, 6-4
21.10.2026Sander Jong L7-6, 6-4
17.10.2026Cosme Rolland De Ravel L6-4, 6-7, 6-2
16.10.2026Andrew Fenty W2-6, 6-2, 6-2
15.10.2026Roger Pascual Ferra W6-0, 6-1
14.10.2026Aidan Kim W6-3, 6-2
28.09.2026Luca Potenza L6-2, 4-2
27.09.2026Francisco Rocha W4-6, 6-3, 6-1
25.09.2026Inaki Montes De La Torre L3-6, 7-6, 6-2

Roger Pascual Ferra, last 10

DateOpponentScore
18.10.2026Duncan Chan L7-6, 2-6, 6-3
15.10.2026Lui Maxted L6-0, 6-1
14.10.2026Tomasz Berkieta W6-4, 6-2
27.09.2026Keegan Rice W6-3, 6-1
26.09.2026Nicolas Arseneault W6-4, 7-5
25.09.2026Theo Papamalamis W6-3, 6-1
25.09.2026Sasha Rozin W6-2, 6-2
24.09.2026Emon Van Loben Sels W7-5, 6-1
23.09.2026Luca Preda W6-2, 7-6
14.09.2026Luca Staeheli L4-6, 6-2, 6-3

Common opponents, last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Earlier previews of this matchup

  • 2026-10-14: ATP Austin (USA), model gave Lui Maxted 38% at +100

Lui Maxted vs Roger Pascual Ferra: quick answers

Who won Lui Maxted vs Roger Pascual Ferra?

Lui Maxted beat Roger Pascual Ferra 6-0, 6-1, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Roger Pascual Ferra at 62%.

What is the head-to-head record between Lui Maxted and Roger Pascual Ferra?

Lui Maxted leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Lui Maxted 6-0, 6-1 at USA Austin.

Who is in better form, Lui Maxted or Roger Pascual Ferra?

Lui Maxted is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Roger Pascual Ferra is 7-3 (current streak: 2 Losses).

How does Tennis Gauge rate Lui Maxted and Roger Pascual Ferra?

Lui Maxted is rated 6531 (ATP #468) and Roger Pascual Ferra is rated 6531 (ATP #467). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.

What are the odds for Lui Maxted vs Roger Pascual Ferra?

Lui Maxted is priced at +100 and Roger Pascual Ferra at -141, which implies a 50% and 59% chance to win. The model rates Roger Pascual Ferra 4 points higher than the odds do (62% vs 59%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.

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