Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Tommy Paul, giving them a 68% chance to win against Luciano Darderi (32%). They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Paul is 6-4 in their last 10, Darderi 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Tommy Paul a 68% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -5 pts
Model minus book: 0 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Tommy Paul at -270 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Tommy Paul | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6967 | 6909 |
| Tour rank | ATP #7 | ATP #36 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 47-22 | 37-27 |
| UTR | 15.97 | 15.82 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1948 | 1820 |
| Best surface | Clay | Clay |
| Worst surface | Hard | Grass |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | 6-1, 6-1 | Austria Wien |
| 10.05.2026 | Luciano Darderi | 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 | Italy Roma |
Recent form
Tommy Paul, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Luciano Darderi | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 27.10.2026 | Andrey Rublev | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Corentin Moutet | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Zizou Bergs | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 30.09.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | L | 6-1, 6-2 |
Luciano Darderi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | L | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 26.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 21.10.2026 | James Duckworth | L | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 10.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 02.10.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 01.10.2026 | Casper Ruud | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 08.09.2026 | Alexander Zverev | L | 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 05.09.2026 | Dane Sweeny | W | 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 03.09.2026 | Dalibor Svrcina | W | 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 31.08.2026 | Harry Wendelken | W | 6-2, 3-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Tommy Paul | Luciano Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 3-0 W 6-2, 6-2, W 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, W 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
1-0 W 1-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Alex De Minaur | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-0, 6-3 |
| Alexander Zverev | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
1-1 L 6-2, 6-2, 7-6, W 1-6, 7-6, 6-0 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-0 |
| Casper Ruud | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 7-5 |
1-1 W 7-6, 6-3, L 6-1, 6-1 |
| Daniel Altmaier | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Ethan Quinn | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0-1 L 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
0-2 L 6-2, 6-3, L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 1-1 W 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, L 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-6, 5-7, 6-1 |
| Rinky Hijikata | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 |
0-2 L 6-4, 6-2, L 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | 1-0 W 6-1, 3-6, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 3-0 W 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, W 6-4, 6-2, W 6-1, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 3-6, 1-0 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Tommy Paul 68% at -270
Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi: quick answers
Who will win Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Tommy Paul, giving them a 68% chance to win against Luciano Darderi (32%).
What is the head-to-head record between Tommy Paul and Luciano Darderi?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Tommy Paul 6-1, 6-1 at Austria Wien.
Who is in better form, Tommy Paul or Luciano Darderi?
Tommy Paul is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Luciano Darderi is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Tommy Paul and Luciano Darderi?
Tommy Paul is rated 6967 (ATP #7) and Luciano Darderi is rated 6909 (ATP #36). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi?
Tommy Paul is priced at -270 and Luciano Darderi at +209, which implies a 73% and 32% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.