Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris
Updated
Tom Paris beat Lucas Poullain 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Lucas Poullain at 62%. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Poullain is 5-5 in their last 10, Paris 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Lucas Poullain a 62% favorite. At +228 the sportsbook implies 30% for Tom Paris, 8 points below the model's 38%.
Model minus book: -14 pts
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Tom Paris at +228 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Lucas Poullain | Tom Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6593 | 6580 |
| Tour rank | ATP #361 | ATP #383 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 45-26 | 11-13 |
| UTR | 14.19 | 13.81 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1471 | 1377 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10.2026 | Tom Paris | 7-6, 6-3 | France Roanne |
| 10.03.2026 | Lucas Poullain | 6-4, 7-6 | France Cherbourg |
Recent form
Lucas Poullain, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Matisse Bobichon | L | 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 25.10.2026 | Timeo Trufelli | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 12.10.2026 | Tom Paris | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 11.10.2026 | Gijs Brouwer | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 02.10.2026 | Joel Schwaerzler | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 30.09.2026 | Remy Bertola | W | 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 29.09.2026 | Mark Lajal | W | 7-6, 5-7, 6-3 |
| 23.09.2026 | Diogo Morais | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 16.09.2026 | Clement Chidekh | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 14.09.2026 | David Jorda Sanchis | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
Tom Paris, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Borna Gojo | L | 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 26.10.2026 | Kilian Feldbausch | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 25.10.2026 | Romain Faucon | W | 6-7, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 20.10.2026 | Maximilian Marterer | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Ugo Blanchet | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Lucas Poullain | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 11.10.2026 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | W | 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
| 27.09.2026 | Niels Visker | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 25.05.2026 | Lukas Pokorny | L | 0-6, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 28.04.2026 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Lucas Poullain | Tom Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Ilia Simakin | 1-0 W 5-7, 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Matisse Bobichon | 0-1 L 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-7, 6-2 |
| Niels Visker | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-0 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Raphael Perot | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-1 |
| Robin Catry | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 0-2 L 6-2, 6-4, L 3-6, 7-6, 6-1 |
1-0 W 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-11: ATP Roanne (France), model gave Lucas Poullain 62% at -313
Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris: quick answers
Who won Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris?
Tom Paris beat Lucas Poullain 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Lucas Poullain at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lucas Poullain and Tom Paris?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 12, 2026, won by Tom Paris 7-6, 6-3 at France Roanne.
Who is in better form, Lucas Poullain or Tom Paris?
Lucas Poullain is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Tom Paris is 4-6 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Lucas Poullain and Tom Paris?
Lucas Poullain is rated 6593 (ATP #361) and Tom Paris is rated 6580 (ATP #383). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris?
Lucas Poullain is priced at -313 and Tom Paris at +228, which implies a 76% and 30% chance to win. The model rates Tom Paris 8 points higher than the odds do (38% vs 30%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.