Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo Arnaldi
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Lorenzo Musetti, giving them a 67% chance to win against Matteo Arnaldi (33%). Lorenzo Musetti leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Musetti is 7-3 in their last 10, Arnaldi 3-7.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Lorenzo Musetti a 67% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -9 pts
Model minus book: +3 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Lorenzo Musetti at -313 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6935 | 6859 |
| Tour rank | ATP #20 | ATP #76 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Last 30 days | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 28-14 | 20-20 |
| UTR | 16.05 | 15.77 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1848 | 1760 |
| Best surface | Clay | Clay |
| Worst surface | Hard | Grass |
Head to head
Lorenzo Musetti leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10.2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-1, 6-4 | France Lyon |
| 27.07.2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-0, 3-1 | USA Washington |
Recent form
Lorenzo Musetti, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Arthur Fery | L | 6-4, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 28.10.2026 | Frances Tiafoe | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 25.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Flavio Cobolli | W | 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Luca Van Assche | W | 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 |
| 21.10.2026 | Moise Kouame | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 19.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Yi Zhou | L | 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 03.09.2026 | Dane Sweeny | L | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 01.09.2026 | Arthur Fery | W | 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 |
Matteo Arnaldi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Luciano Darderi | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Bernard Tomic | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 03.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 30.09.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | W | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 31.08.2026 | James Duckworth | L | 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 15.08.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 07.08.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | L | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 05.08.2026 | Fabian Marozsan | W | 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Alex De Minaur | 1-0 W 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 |
1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-0 W 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1-1 W 7-6, 7-5, L 7-6, 7-5 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-7, 3-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Martin Landaluce | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Rafael Jodar | 0-2 L 6-4, 6-3, L 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Raphael Collignon | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 3-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 5-7, 6-4, 7-6 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
1-1 L 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, W 6-7, 6-3, 7-6, 6-3 |
| Taylor Fritz | 2-1 W 6-3, 6-4, W 6-2, 7-5, 6-4, L 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-19: ATP Lyon (X) (France), model gave Matteo Arnaldi 31% at +230
- 2026-10-18: ATP Lyon (X) (France), model gave Matteo Arnaldi 31% at +230
Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo Arnaldi: quick answers
Who will win Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Lorenzo Musetti, giving them a 67% chance to win against Matteo Arnaldi (33%).
What is the head-to-head record between Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Arnaldi?
Lorenzo Musetti leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 19, 2026, won by Lorenzo Musetti 6-1, 6-4 at France Lyon.
Who is in better form, Lorenzo Musetti or Matteo Arnaldi?
Lorenzo Musetti is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Matteo Arnaldi is 3-7 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Arnaldi?
Lorenzo Musetti is rated 6935 (ATP #20) and Matteo Arnaldi is rated 6859 (ATP #76). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Lorenzo Musetti is priced at -313 and Matteo Arnaldi at +226, which implies a 76% and 31% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.