Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie Mcdonald
Updated
Lorenzo Carboni beat Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-7, 6-4, 1-0, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Mackenzie Mcdonald at 86%. Lorenzo Carboni leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Carboni is 5-5 in their last 10, Mcdonald 2-8.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mackenzie Mcdonald a 86% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -7 pts
Model minus book: -1 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mackenzie Mcdonald at -667 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Lorenzo Carboni | Mackenzie Mcdonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6531 | 6745 |
| Tour rank | ATP #469 | ATP #161 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Last 30 days | 4-4 | 0-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 4 Losses |
| Season record | 35-34 | 17-27 |
| UTR | 13.78 | 14.75 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1138 | 1600 |
| Best surface | Grass | Grass |
| Worst surface | Hard | Clay |
Head to head
Lorenzo Carboni leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10.2026 | Lorenzo Carboni | 6-7, 6-4, 1-0 | Italy Olbia |
Recent form
Lorenzo Carboni, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Lorenzo Angelini | L | 6-0, 7-5 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tommaso Compagnucci | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 20.10.2026 | Alexander Chang | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Luca Nardi | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 12.10.2026 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | W | 6-7, 6-4, 1-0 |
| 07.10.2026 | Federico Iannaccone | L | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 02.10.2026 | Sander Jong | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Javier Barranco Cosano | W | 6-0, 6-4 |
| 29.09.2026 | Jaume Casas Blasi | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 |
| 24.09.2026 | Daniel Michalski | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
Mackenzie Mcdonald, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10.2026 | Lorenzo Carboni | L | 6-7, 6-4, 1-0 |
| 07.10.2026 | Ryan Nijboer | L | 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 29.09.2026 | Toby Samuel | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 28.08.2026 | Dalibor Svrcina | L | 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 26.08.2026 | Thiago Seyboth Wild | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 24.08.2026 | Stefano Napolitano | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 20.08.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 12.08.2026 | Yibing Wu | L | 7-6, 1-6, 7-5 |
| 28.07.2026 | Alex Michelsen | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 26.07.2026 | Trevor Svajda | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Lorenzo Carboni | Mackenzie Mcdonald |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Carballes Baena | 0-1 L 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-11: ATP Olbia (X) (Italy), model gave Lorenzo Carboni 14% at +372
Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie Mcdonald: quick answers
Who won Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie Mcdonald?
Lorenzo Carboni beat Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-7, 6-4, 1-0, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Mackenzie Mcdonald at 86%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorenzo Carboni and Mackenzie Mcdonald?
Lorenzo Carboni leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 12, 2026, won by Lorenzo Carboni 6-7, 6-4, 1-0 at Italy Olbia.
Who is in better form, Lorenzo Carboni or Mackenzie Mcdonald?
Lorenzo Carboni is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Mackenzie Mcdonald is 2-8 (current streak: 4 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Lorenzo Carboni and Mackenzie Mcdonald?
Lorenzo Carboni is rated 6531 (ATP #469) and Mackenzie Mcdonald is rated 6745 (ATP #161). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie Mcdonald?
Lorenzo Carboni is priced at +372 and Mackenzie Mcdonald at -667, which implies a 21% and 87% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.