Luca Nardi vs Lorenzo Carboni
Updated
Luca Nardi beat Lorenzo Carboni 6-4, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Luca Nardi leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Nardi is 4-6 in their last 10, Carboni 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Luca Nardi a 84% favorite. At -345 the sportsbook implies 78% for Luca Nardi, 7 points below the model's 84%.
Model minus book: +7 pts
Model minus book: -13 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Luca Nardi at -345 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Luca Nardi | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6695 | 6531 |
| Tour rank | ATP #224 | ATP #469 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 1-1 | 5-4 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 19-23 | 35-34 |
| UTR | 14.54 | 13.78 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1560 | 1138 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Grass | Hard |
Head to head
Luca Nardi leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Luca Nardi | 6-4, 6-1 | Italy Olbia |
Recent form
Luca Nardi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Michael Mmoh | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Lorenzo Carboni | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 13.10.2026 | August Holmgren | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | L | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 25.08.2026 | Federico Cina | L | 6-4, 3-0 |
| 11.07.2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 24.06.2026 | Otto Virtanen | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.06.2026 | Rio Noguchi | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 15.06.2026 | Remy Bertola | L | 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
Lorenzo Carboni, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Lorenzo Angelini | L | 6-0, 7-5 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tommaso Compagnucci | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 20.10.2026 | Alexander Chang | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Luca Nardi | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 12.10.2026 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | W | 6-7, 6-4, 1-0 |
| 07.10.2026 | Federico Iannaccone | L | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 02.10.2026 | Sander Jong | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Javier Barranco Cosano | W | 6-0, 6-4 |
| 29.09.2026 | Jaume Casas Blasi | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 |
| 24.09.2026 | Daniel Michalski | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: ATP Olbia (X) (Italy), model gave Luca Nardi 82% at -345
Luca Nardi vs Lorenzo Carboni: quick answers
Who won Luca Nardi vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Luca Nardi beat Lorenzo Carboni 6-4, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Luca Nardi and Lorenzo Carboni?
Luca Nardi leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Luca Nardi 6-4, 6-1 at Italy Olbia.
Who is in better form, Luca Nardi or Lorenzo Carboni?
Luca Nardi is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Lorenzo Carboni is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Luca Nardi and Lorenzo Carboni?
Luca Nardi is rated 6695 (ATP #224) and Lorenzo Carboni is rated 6531 (ATP #469). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Luca Nardi vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Luca Nardi is priced at -345 and Lorenzo Carboni at +250, which implies a 78% and 29% chance to win. The model rates Luca Nardi 7 points higher than the odds do (84% vs 78%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.