Tomas Machac vs Liam Draxl
Updated
Liam Draxl beat Tomas Machac 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Tomas Machac at 83%. Liam Draxl leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Machac is 5-5 in their last 10, Draxl 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Tomas Machac a 83% favorite. At -263 the sportsbook implies 72% for Tomas Machac, 11 points below the model's 83%.
Model minus book: +11 pts
Model minus book: -14 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Tomas Machac at -263 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Tomas Machac | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6877 | 6750 |
| Tour rank | ATP #54 | ATP #155 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 4-3 | 7-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 21-21 | 43-27 |
| UTR | 15.7 | 14.74 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1802 | 1598 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Liam Draxl leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 | China Jinan |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 | China Jinan |
Recent form
Tomas Machac, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Corentin Moutet | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Zangar Nurlanuly | W | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Aleksandar Vukic | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 13.10.2026 | Alexandre Muller | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 07.10.2026 | Zhizhen Zhang | W | 1-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
Liam Draxl, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Daniil Ostapenkov | L | 4-5 |
| 27.10.2026 | Tomasz Berkieta | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 17.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Ilya Ivashka | W | 6-4, 0-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | James Duckworth | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Omar Jasika | W | 5-7, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 11.10.2026 | Yutong Du | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
| 06.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | L | 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Tomas Machac | Liam Draxl |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Gea | 0-2 L 6-3, 6-4, L 6-3, 4-5 |
0-2 L 7-6, 2-6, 6-0, L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Emilio Nava | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
| James Duckworth | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Quentin Halys | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Toby Samuel | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-15: ATP Jinan (China), model gave Tomas Machac 83% at -263
Tomas Machac vs Liam Draxl: quick answers
Who won Tomas Machac vs Liam Draxl?
Liam Draxl beat Tomas Machac 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Tomas Machac at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tomas Machac and Liam Draxl?
Liam Draxl leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 16, 2026, won by Liam Draxl 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 at China Jinan.
Who is in better form, Tomas Machac or Liam Draxl?
Tomas Machac is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Liam Draxl is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Tomas Machac and Liam Draxl?
Tomas Machac is rated 6877 (ATP #54) and Liam Draxl is rated 6750 (ATP #155). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Tomas Machac vs Liam Draxl?
Tomas Machac is priced at -263 and Liam Draxl at +227, which implies a 72% and 31% chance to win. The model rates Tomas Machac 11 points higher than the odds do (83% vs 72%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.