Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Keegan Smith
Updated
Keegan Smith beat Stefanos Sakellaridis 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Stefanos Sakellaridis at 64%. Keegan Smith leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Sakellaridis is 3-7 in their last 10, Smith 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Stefanos Sakellaridis a 64% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: 0 pts
Model minus book: -8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Stefanos Sakellaridis at -179 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Stefanos Sakellaridis | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6731 | 6636 |
| Tour rank | ATP #172 | ATP #301 |
| Last 10 matches | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 0-4 | 3-4 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 43-29 | 59-33 |
| UTR | 14.63 | 14.4 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1614 | 1451 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Keegan Smith leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.2026 | Keegan Smith | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 | China Jinan |
Recent form
Stefanos Sakellaridis, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Coleman Wong | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 27.10.2026 | Timofey Skatov | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Mikhail Kukushkin | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 18.10.2026 | Alexander Shevchenko | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Petr Bar Biryukov | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Keegan Smith | L | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 05.10.2026 | Timofey Skatov | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 29.09.2026 | Yuta Shimizu | L | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 20.09.2026 | Norbert Gombos | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 19.09.2026 | Alex Molcan | L | 6-1, 6-1 |
Keegan Smith, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Yu Hsiou Hsu | L | 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
| 23.10.2026 | Tristan Schoolkate | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 22.10.2026 | Fajing Sun | W | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 20.10.2026 | Max Purcell | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Vit Kopriva | W | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Stefanos Sakellaridis | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Hiroki Moriya | L | 3-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Mitchell Krueger | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Stefanos Sakellaridis | Keegan Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Andrej Nedic | 0-1 L 2-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-1, 7-6 |
| Henri Squire | 1-0 W 7-6, 4-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Manish Sureshkumar | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-4, 2-6, 6-2 |
| Rio Noguchi | 1-1 W 6-0, 6-3, L 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 |
| Sho Shimabukuro | 1-1 L 7-5, 6-4, W 2-6, 6-4, 7-5 |
1-0 W 5-7, 6-0, 6-3 |
| Soon Woo Kwon | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Tristan Schoolkate | 1-0 W 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
| Yu Hsiou Hsu | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-12: ATP Jinan (China), model gave Stefanos Sakellaridis 64% at -179
- 2026-10-11: ATP Jinan (China), model gave Stefanos Sakellaridis 60% at -152
Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Keegan Smith: quick answers
Who won Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Keegan Smith?
Keegan Smith beat Stefanos Sakellaridis 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Stefanos Sakellaridis at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stefanos Sakellaridis and Keegan Smith?
Keegan Smith leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 13, 2026, won by Keegan Smith 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 at China Jinan.
Who is in better form, Stefanos Sakellaridis or Keegan Smith?
Stefanos Sakellaridis is 3-7 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Keegan Smith is 4-6 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Stefanos Sakellaridis and Keegan Smith?
Stefanos Sakellaridis is rated 6731 (ATP #172) and Keegan Smith is rated 6636 (ATP #301). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Keegan Smith?
Stefanos Sakellaridis is priced at -179 and Keegan Smith at +129, which implies a 64% and 44% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.