Keegan Smith vs Max Purcell
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Max Purcell, giving them a 53% chance to win against Keegan Smith (47%). Keegan Smith leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Smith is 4-6 in their last 10, Purcell 7-3. At +161, the odds imply 38% for Keegan Smith, below the model's 47%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Max Purcell a 53% favorite. At +161 the sportsbook implies 38% for Keegan Smith, 8 points below the model's 47%.
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model minus book: -17 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Keegan Smith at +161 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Keegan Smith | Max Purcell | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6636 | 6588 |
| Tour rank | ATP #301 | ATP #374 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 6-5 | 7-3 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 59-33 | 19-7 |
| UTR | 14.4 | 14.45 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1426 | 1662 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Keegan Smith leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Keegan Smith | 6-4, 7-6 | China Guangzhou |
Recent form
Keegan Smith, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Yu Hsiou Hsu | L | 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
| 23.10.2026 | Tristan Schoolkate | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 22.10.2026 | Fajing Sun | W | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 20.10.2026 | Max Purcell | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Vit Kopriva | W | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Stefanos Sakellaridis | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Hiroki Moriya | L | 3-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Mitchell Krueger | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
Max Purcell, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Keegan Smith | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 19.10.2026 | Evan Zhu | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Yuta Shimizu | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 06.10.2026 | Filip Peliwo | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 04.10.2026 | Julien De Cuyper | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 02.10.2026 | Taiyo Yamanaka | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Zhao Zhao | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 29.09.2026 | Jumpei Yamasaki | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 12.09.2026 | Ilia Simakin | L | 6-3, 2-6, 6-2 |
| 11.09.2026 | Cruz Hewitt | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Keegan Smith vs Max Purcell: quick answers
Who will win Keegan Smith vs Max Purcell?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Max Purcell, giving them a 53% chance to win against Keegan Smith (47%).
What is the head-to-head record between Keegan Smith and Max Purcell?
Keegan Smith leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Keegan Smith 6-4, 7-6 at China Guangzhou.
Who is in better form, Keegan Smith or Max Purcell?
Keegan Smith is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Max Purcell is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Keegan Smith and Max Purcell?
Keegan Smith is rated 6636 (ATP #301) and Max Purcell is rated 6588 (ATP #374). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Keegan Smith vs Max Purcell?
Keegan Smith is priced at +161 and Max Purcell at -238, which implies a 38% and 70% chance to win. The model rates Keegan Smith 8 points higher than the odds do (47% vs 38%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.