Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Karen Khachanov, giving them a 56% chance to win against Tomas Machac (44%). Karen Khachanov leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Machac is 5-5 in their last 10, Khachanov 6-4. At +210, the odds imply 32% for Tomas Machac, below the model's 44%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Karen Khachanov a 56% favorite. At +210 the sportsbook implies 32% for Tomas Machac, 11 points below the model's 44%.
Model minus book: +11 pts
Model minus book: -17 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Tomas Machac at +210 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Tomas Machac | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6877 | 6932 |
| Tour rank | ATP #54 | ATP #22 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 4-5 | 5-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 21-21 | 29-25 |
| UTR | 15.7 | 16.05 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1798 | 1858 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Grass | Hard |
Head to head
Karen Khachanov leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 | Kazakhstan Almaty |
Recent form
Tomas Machac, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Corentin Moutet | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Zangar Nurlanuly | W | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Aleksandar Vukic | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 13.10.2026 | Alexandre Muller | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 07.10.2026 | Zhizhen Zhang | W | 1-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
Karen Khachanov, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 23.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | L | 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 22.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | W | 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 20.10.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 11.10.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Arthur Fery | W | 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 |
| 04.10.2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | L | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 02.10.2026 | Alex Molcan | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 30.09.2026 | Felix Auger Aliassime | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Tomas Machac | Karen Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | 1-0 W 16-11, 14-11, 13-17, 11-13, 2-0 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Alex De Minaur | 0-2 L 1-6, 6-4, 6-3, L 10-15, 16-11, 16-13, 16-12 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Alex Molcan | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-3 |
| Alexander Bublik | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
0-1 L 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| Alexander Zverev | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-6, 7-6 |
| Arthur Gea | 0-2 L 6-3, 6-4, L 6-3, 4-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6, 6-0 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 15-10, 17-10, 16-11 |
| Jaume Munar | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Ugo Humbert | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-27: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Tomas Machac 44% at +210
- 2026-10-26: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Tomas Machac 44% at +210
- 2026-10-25: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Tomas Machac 44% at +210
- 2026-10-24: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Tomas Machac 44% at +210
- 2026-10-23: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Tomas Machac 44% at +210
- 2026-10-22: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Tomas Machac 44% at +210
- 2026-10-21: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Tomas Machac 44% at +210
Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov: quick answers
Who will win Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Karen Khachanov, giving them a 56% chance to win against Tomas Machac (44%).
What is the head-to-head record between Tomas Machac and Karen Khachanov?
Karen Khachanov leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 22, 2026, won by Karen Khachanov 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 at Kazakhstan Almaty.
Who is in better form, Tomas Machac or Karen Khachanov?
Tomas Machac is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Karen Khachanov is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Tomas Machac and Karen Khachanov?
Tomas Machac is rated 6877 (ATP #54) and Karen Khachanov is rated 6932 (ATP #22). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov?
Tomas Machac is priced at +210 and Karen Khachanov at -270, which implies a 32% and 73% chance to win. The model rates Tomas Machac 11 points higher than the odds do (44% vs 32%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.