Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Updated
Kaitlyn Carnicella beat Lucciana Perez Alarcon 6-3, 3-0, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Lucciana Perez Alarcon at 92%. Kaitlyn Carnicella leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Carnicella is 7-3 in their last 10, Alarcon 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Lucciana Perez Alarcon a 92% favorite. At -400 the sportsbook implies 80% for Lucciana Perez Alarcon, 12 points below the model's 92%.
Model minus book: -20 pts
Model minus book: +12 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Lucciana Perez Alarcon at -400 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Kaitlyn Carnicella | Lucciana Perez Alarcon | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6480 | 6552 |
| Tour rank | WTA #582 | WTA #469 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 2-0 | 7-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Win | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 29-16 | 61-12 |
| UTR | 10.89 | 11.4 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | – | 1476 |
| Best surface | – | Grass |
| Worst surface | – | Hard |
Head to head
Kaitlyn Carnicella leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10.2026 | Kaitlyn Carnicella | 6-3, 3-0 | USA Lexington |
Recent form
Kaitlyn Carnicella, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10.2026 | Astra Sharma | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 11.10.2026 | Arantxa Rus | W | 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 |
| 09.10.2026 | Lucciana Perez Alarcon | W | 6-3, 3-0 |
| 08.10.2026 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Helena Buchwald | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 26.09.2026 | Mia Slama | L | 7-5, 2-6, 6-0 |
| 26.09.2026 | Vivian Yang | W | 4-6, 6-0, 6-2 |
| 25.09.2026 | Irina Balus | L | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 24.09.2026 | Linea Bajraliu | W | 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 23.09.2026 | Kyoka Kubo | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
Lucciana Perez Alarcon, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10.2026 | Kaitlyn Carnicella | L | 6-3, 3-0 |
| 08.10.2026 | Maria Lourdes Carle | W | 6-2, 0-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Mia Slama | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 30.09.2026 | Tatjana Maria | L | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 29.09.2026 | Mayu Crossley | W | 6-1, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 28.09.2026 | Kelly Keller | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 26.09.2026 | Janae Preston | L | 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 |
| 25.09.2026 | Emma Kamper Malmkjaer | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 24.09.2026 | Reina Goto | W | 6-0, 6-2 |
| 23.09.2026 | Ena Koike | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Kaitlyn Carnicella | Lucciana Perez Alarcon |
|---|---|---|
| Anastasiya Lopata | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 1-6, 6-7, 3-6 |
| Aysegul Mert | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-0 |
| Irina Balus | 0-1 L 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Isabella Barrera Aguirre | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-0, 6-0 |
| Katrina Scott | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
| Kelly Keller | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Mayu Crossley | 0-2 L 7-6, 5-7, 10-7, L 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-1, 4-6, 6-1 |
| Mia Slama | 0-1 L 7-5, 2-6, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Zoe Hammond | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-0, 6-2 |
Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon: quick answers
Who won Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon?
Kaitlyn Carnicella beat Lucciana Perez Alarcon 6-3, 3-0, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Lucciana Perez Alarcon at 92%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kaitlyn Carnicella and Lucciana Perez Alarcon?
Kaitlyn Carnicella leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 9, 2026, won by Kaitlyn Carnicella 6-3, 3-0 at USA Lexington.
Who is in better form, Kaitlyn Carnicella or Lucciana Perez Alarcon?
Kaitlyn Carnicella is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Win). Lucciana Perez Alarcon is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Kaitlyn Carnicella and Lucciana Perez Alarcon?
Kaitlyn Carnicella is rated 6480 (WTA #582) and Lucciana Perez Alarcon is rated 6552 (WTA #469). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon?
Kaitlyn Carnicella is priced at +250 and Lucciana Perez Alarcon at -400, which implies a 29% and 80% chance to win. The model rates Lucciana Perez Alarcon 12 points higher than the odds do (92% vs 80%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.