Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin vs Rafael Tosetto
Updated
Rafael Tosetto beat Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin 7-6, 2-6, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin at 75%. Rafael Tosetto leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Ceolin is 5-5 in their last 10, Tosetto 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin a 75% favorite. At -159 the sportsbook implies 61% for Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin, 13 points below the model's 75%.
Model minus book: +13 pts
Model minus book: -21 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin at -159 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | Rafael Tosetto | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6303 | 6289 |
| Tour rank | ATP #1142 | ATP #1197 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 33-23 | 29-26 |
| UTR | 13.38 | 12.82 |
Head to head
Rafael Tosetto leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Rafael Tosetto | 7-6, 2-6, 6-4 | Brazil Paranavai |
| 12.09.2026 | Rafael Tosetto | 7-6, 6-4 | Brazil Leme |
Recent form
Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Rafael Tosetto | L | 7-6, 2-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 27.09.2026 | Pedro Sakamoto | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 24.09.2026 | Pedro Sakamoto | L | 6-0, 6-2 |
| 23.09.2026 | Eric Martins | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 18.09.2026 | Nicolas Zanellato | L | 2-6, 7-5, 6-1 |
| 16.09.2026 | Ignacio Antonio Becerra Otarola | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 12.09.2026 | Rafael Tosetto | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 11.09.2026 | Ryan Dickerson | W | 2-6, 6-2, 11-9 |
| 10.09.2026 | Joao Cunha Cunha | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
Rafael Tosetto, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Tomas Martinez | L | 2-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tomas Farjat | L | 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| 17.10.2026 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | L | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | W | 7-6, 2-6, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Ignacio Monzon | W | 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 27.09.2026 | Jose Pereira | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 24.09.2026 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | L | 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 23.09.2026 | Jefferson Wendler Filho | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 17.09.2026 | Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin | Rafael Tosetto |
|---|---|---|
| Andre Souza Pinto De Camargo E Silva | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-3 |
| Conner Huertas Del Pino | 0-1 L 6-1, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
| Ignacio Monzon | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-1, 6-3, W 6-0, 6-1 |
| Jose Pereira | 1-0 W 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: ATP Paranavai (Brazil), model gave Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin 75% at -159
Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin vs Rafael Tosetto: quick answers
Who won Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin vs Rafael Tosetto?
Rafael Tosetto beat Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin 7-6, 2-6, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin and Rafael Tosetto?
Rafael Tosetto leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Rafael Tosetto 7-6, 2-6, 6-4 at Brazil Paranavai.
Who is in better form, Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin or Rafael Tosetto?
Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Rafael Tosetto is 4-6 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin and Rafael Tosetto?
Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin is rated 6303 (ATP #1142) and Rafael Tosetto is rated 6289 (ATP #1197). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin vs Rafael Tosetto?
Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin is priced at -159 and Rafael Tosetto at +114, which implies a 61% and 47% chance to win. The model rates Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin 13 points higher than the odds do (75% vs 61%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.