Leylah Fernandez vs Jelena Ostapenko
Updated
Jelena Ostapenko beat Leylah Fernandez 6-1, 1-6, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Leylah Fernandez at 60%. Jelena Ostapenko leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Fernandez is 8-2 in their last 10, Ostapenko 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Leylah Fernandez a 60% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: +2 pts
Model minus book: -8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Leylah Fernandez at -137 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Leylah Fernandez | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7109 | 7120 |
| Tour rank | WTA #22 | WTA #17 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 7-1 | 4-2 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 30-26 | 28-21 |
| UTR | 12.52 | 12.44 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1848 | 1820 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Hard |
Head to head
Jelena Ostapenko leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 | China Wuhan |
Recent form
Leylah Fernandez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Himeno Sakatsume | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 25.10.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Marie Bouzkova | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W | 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 19.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Han Shi | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
Jelena Ostapenko, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Belinda Bencic | L | 6-3, 1-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Sonay Kartal | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | W | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Jessica Pegula | W | 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Daria Kasatkina | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 05.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | L | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 03.10.2026 | Paula Badosa | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 24.09.2026 | Taylah Preston | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Leylah Fernandez | Jelena Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 1-1 L 6-2, 7-6, W 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
| Dayana Yastremska | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Diana Shnaider | 0-2 L 6-3, 6-0, L 7-5, 6-3 |
2-0 W 7-6, 6-1, W 7-6, 6-1 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 6-1, W 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Elise Mertens | 2-0 W 6-2, 7-6, W 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Jessica Pegula | 0-2 L 1-6, 6-4, 6-3, L 6-2, 6-2 |
1-1 W 2-6, 7-6, 6-3, L 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Magda Linette | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-2, 2-6, 6-2 |
| Magdalena Frech | 1-0 W 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-3 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 2-1 W 6-2, 7-5, W 6-1, 6-4, L 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva | 1-0 W 7-6, 3-6, 6-1 |
1-0 W 5-7, 7-6, 6-2 |
| Victoria Mboko | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Xin Yu Wang | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | 1-1 L 6-4, 7-6, W 6-7, 6-1, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-0 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Leylah Fernandez 64% at -137
Leylah Fernandez vs Jelena Ostapenko: quick answers
Who won Leylah Fernandez vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Jelena Ostapenko beat Leylah Fernandez 6-1, 1-6, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Leylah Fernandez at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leylah Fernandez and Jelena Ostapenko?
Jelena Ostapenko leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Jelena Ostapenko 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 at China Wuhan.
Who is in better form, Leylah Fernandez or Jelena Ostapenko?
Leylah Fernandez is 8-2 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Jelena Ostapenko is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Leylah Fernandez and Jelena Ostapenko?
Leylah Fernandez is rated 7109 (WTA #22) and Jelena Ostapenko is rated 7120 (WTA #17). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Leylah Fernandez vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Leylah Fernandez is priced at -137 and Jelena Ostapenko at +110, which implies a 58% and 48% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.