Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula
Updated
Jelena Ostapenko beat Jessica Pegula 2-6, 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Jessica Pegula at 85%. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Ostapenko is 6-4 in their last 10, Pegula 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Jessica Pegula a 85% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -5 pts
Model minus book: +1 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Jessica Pegula at -556 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Jelena Ostapenko | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7120 | 7174 |
| Tour rank | WTA #17 | WTA #3 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 28-21 | 51-15 |
| UTR | 12.44 | 12.87 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1820 | 2114 |
| Best surface | Grass | Grass |
| Worst surface | Hard | Clay |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 | China Wuhan |
| 09.03.2026 | Jessica Pegula | 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 | USA Indian Wells |
Recent form
Jelena Ostapenko, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Belinda Bencic | L | 6-3, 1-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Sonay Kartal | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | W | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Jessica Pegula | W | 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Daria Kasatkina | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 05.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | L | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 03.10.2026 | Paula Badosa | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 24.09.2026 | Taylah Preston | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
Jessica Pegula, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 11.09.2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 09.09.2026 | Emma Navarro | W | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 07.9.2026 | Sorana Cirstea | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 04.09.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | W | 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 02.09.2026 | Sofia Kenin | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 30.08.2026 | Elena Gabriela Ruse | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 24.08.2026 | Coco Gauff | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 22.08.2026 | Iga Swiatek | W | 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 20.08.2026 | Amanda Anisimova | W | 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Jelena Ostapenko | Jessica Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-0 |
| Anastasia Potapova | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | 2-0 W 6-4, 6-1, W 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | 1-1 W 6-1, 6-2, L 2-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-3, 7-5, W 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-1 L 7-5, 6-2, W 6-4, 6-7, 6-0 |
| Belinda Bencic | 0-1 L 6-3, 1-1 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6 |
| Dayana Yastremska | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 5-7, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Diana Shnaider | 2-0 W 7-6, 6-1, W 7-6, 6-1 |
2-1 L 6-3, 6-3, W 7-5, 6-4, W 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | 1-1 W 2-6, 6-2, 6-3, L 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
1-0 W 1-6, 6-1, 7-6 |
| Francesca Jones | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-1, 3-0 |
| Leylah Fernandez | 1-0 W 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
2-0 W 1-6, 6-4, 6-3, W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Magdalena Frech | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-3 |
2-0 W 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, W 3-6, 6-3, 6-0 |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva | 1-0 W 5-7, 7-6, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Simona Waltert | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Sorana Cirstea | 0-2 L 6-1, 7-6, L 6-2, 7-6 |
2-0 W 6-3, 6-4, W 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-0 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Jelena Ostapenko 15% at +405
Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula: quick answers
Who won Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula?
Jelena Ostapenko beat Jessica Pegula 2-6, 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Jessica Pegula at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jelena Ostapenko and Jessica Pegula?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Jelena Ostapenko 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 at China Wuhan.
Who is in better form, Jelena Ostapenko or Jessica Pegula?
Jelena Ostapenko is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Jessica Pegula is 7-3 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Jelena Ostapenko and Jessica Pegula?
Jelena Ostapenko is rated 7120 (WTA #17) and Jessica Pegula is rated 7174 (WTA #3). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula?
Jelena Ostapenko is priced at +405 and Jessica Pegula at -556, which implies a 20% and 85% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.