Jasmine Paolini vs Nikola Bartunkova
Updated
Jasmine Paolini beat Nikola Bartunkova 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Nikola Bartunkova at 56%. Jasmine Paolini leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Paolini is 4-6 in their last 10, Bartunkova 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Nikola Bartunkova a 56% favorite. At +155 the sportsbook implies 39% for Jasmine Paolini, 5 points below the model's 44%.
Model minus book: +5 pts
Model minus book: -10 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Jasmine Paolini at +155 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Jasmine Paolini | Nikola Bartunkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7071 | 7053 |
| Tour rank | WTA #33 | WTA #43 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 22-19 | 41-26 |
| UTR | 12.38 | 12.52 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1826 | 1912 |
| Best surface | Clay | Grass |
| Worst surface | Hard | Clay |
Head to head
Jasmine Paolini leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Jasmine Paolini | 7-6, 6-3 | China Wuhan |
Recent form
Jasmine Paolini, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Naomi Osaka | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 22.10.2026 | Iva Jovic | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 20.10.2026 | Anhelina Kalinina | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Sonay Kartal | L | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 14.10.2026 | Nikola Bartunkova | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Sara Bejlek | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 02.10.2026 | Daria Snigur | L | 3-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 26.09.2026 | Elina Svitolina | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 24.09.2026 | Qinwen Zheng | W | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 04.09.2026 | Sorana Cirstea | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
Nikola Bartunkova, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Jasmine Paolini | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Lilli Tagger | W | 7-6, 2-6, 6-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Mirra Andreeva | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 08.10.2026 | Karolina Muchova | W | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 06.10.2026 | Sinja Kraus | W | 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 04.10.2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Magdalena Frech | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 05.09.2026 | Mirra Andreeva | L | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 03.09.2026 | Tatjana Maria | W | 6-7, 6-2, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Jasmine Paolini | Nikola Bartunkova |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 1-1 W 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, L 6-1, 7-6 |
0-1 L 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| Anastasia Potapova | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Belinda Bencic | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 0-6, 6-4 |
| Elina Svitolina | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
| Elise Mertens | 0-1 L 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
1-2 L 1-6, 6-4, 6-2, W 6-1, 6-4, L 6-0, 6-4 |
| Himeno Sakatsume | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
0-1 L 7-5, 1-6, 6-3 |
| Magdalena Frech | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Sorana Cirstea | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
| Tatjana Maria | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Taylor Townsend | 1-0 W 6-3, 1-6, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-4 |
| Viktorija Golubic | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Jasmine Paolini 44% at +155
Jasmine Paolini vs Nikola Bartunkova: quick answers
Who won Jasmine Paolini vs Nikola Bartunkova?
Jasmine Paolini beat Nikola Bartunkova 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Nikola Bartunkova at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jasmine Paolini and Nikola Bartunkova?
Jasmine Paolini leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Jasmine Paolini 7-6, 6-3 at China Wuhan.
Who is in better form, Jasmine Paolini or Nikola Bartunkova?
Jasmine Paolini is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Nikola Bartunkova is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Jasmine Paolini and Nikola Bartunkova?
Jasmine Paolini is rated 7071 (WTA #33) and Nikola Bartunkova is rated 7053 (WTA #43). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Jasmine Paolini vs Nikola Bartunkova?
Jasmine Paolini is priced at +155 and Nikola Bartunkova at -200, which implies a 39% and 67% chance to win. The model rates Jasmine Paolini 5 points higher than the odds do (44% vs 39%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.