Jamie Mackenzie vs Luca Castelnuovo
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Jamie Mackenzie, giving them a 51% chance to win against Luca Castelnuovo (49%). Mackenzie is 5-5 in their last 10, Castelnuovo 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Jamie Mackenzie a 51% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -8 pts
Model minus book: -2 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Jamie Mackenzie at -145 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Jamie Mackenzie | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6465 | 6512 |
| Tour rank | ATP #608 | ATP #508 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 28-19 | 30-28 |
| UTR | 13.78 | 13.83 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1429 | 1286 |
| Best surface | Clay | Hard |
| Worst surface | Hard | Clay |
Head to head
Jamie Mackenzie and Luca Castelnuovo haven't played each other in our records.
Recent form
Jamie Mackenzie, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Yusuke Takahashi | L | 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Corban Crowther | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 11.09.2026 | Marcel Latak | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 10.09.2026 | Jack Kennedy | W | 6-4, 3-6, 2-6 |
| 09.09.2026 | Connor Doig | W | 3-6, 3-6 |
| 06.09.2026 | Matias Reyniak | W | 6-7, 7-6, 3-6 |
| 11.08.2026 | Jan Kumstat | L | 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 09.08.2026 | Jan-Niklas Buchwald | W | 6-0, 6-1 |
| 04.08.2026 | Elmer Moller | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 02.08.2026 | Jan Choinski | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
Luca Castelnuovo, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Filip Peliwo | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Yusuke Kusuhara | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Khumoyun Sultanov | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 19.10.2026 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Egor Pleshivtsev | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Akira Santillan | L | 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 22.09.2026 | Pavel Kotov | L | 6-7, 7-5, 7-5 |
| 16.09.2026 | Elias Ymer | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 15.09.2026 | Omar Jasika | W | 6-7, 6-2, 1-0 |
| 12.09.2026 | Ilya Ivashka | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Jamie Mackenzie | Luca Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Jurij Rodionov | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: ATP Qian Daohu (China), model gave Jamie Mackenzie 51% at -145
Jamie Mackenzie vs Luca Castelnuovo: quick answers
Who will win Jamie Mackenzie vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Jamie Mackenzie, giving them a 51% chance to win against Luca Castelnuovo (49%).
Have Jamie Mackenzie and Luca Castelnuovo played before?
Not in Tennis Gauge's records. This would be their first recorded meeting.
Who is in better form, Jamie Mackenzie or Luca Castelnuovo?
Jamie Mackenzie is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Luca Castelnuovo is 4-6 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Jamie Mackenzie and Luca Castelnuovo?
Jamie Mackenzie is rated 6465 (ATP #608) and Luca Castelnuovo is rated 6512 (ATP #508). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Jamie Mackenzie vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Jamie Mackenzie is priced at -145 and Luca Castelnuovo at -102, which implies a 59% and 50% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.