Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Ilia Simakin, giving them a 60% chance to win against Luka Pavlovic (40%). Ilia Simakin leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Pavlovic is 7-3 in their last 10, Simakin 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Ilia Simakin a 60% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: +1 pts
Model minus book: -9 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Ilia Simakin at -227 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Luka Pavlovic | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6606 | 6623 |
| Tour rank | ATP #345 | ATP #318 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 8-5 | 5-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 35-30 | 51-23 |
| UTR | 14.35 | 14.35 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1505 | 1667 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Ilia Simakin leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05.10.2026 | Ilia Simakin | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Luka Pavlovic, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Tristan Schoolkate | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Kangyuan Shi | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 11.10.2026 | Thomas Fancutt | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 05.10.2026 | Ilia Simakin | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Lloyd Harris | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 29.09.2026 | Akira Santillan | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 27.09.2026 | Gabriel Elicha Navas | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 26.09.2026 | Marcin Andrzejczak | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 23.09.2026 | Noble Renfrow | W | 6-0, 7-6 |
Ilia Simakin, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Roman Safiullin | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Lukas Palovic | W | 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 13.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 08.10.2026 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L | 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 06.10.2026 | Rigele Te | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 05.10.2026 | Luka Pavlovic | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
| 20.09.2026 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | W | 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 19.09.2026 | Hunter Heck | W | 6-7, 7-5, 6-2 |
| 18.09.2026 | Cruz Hewitt | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 17.09.2026 | Blake Ellis | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Luka Pavlovic | Ilia Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Dimitar Kuzmanov | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Frederico Ferreira Silva | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Hunter Heck | 0-1 L 3-6, 6-1, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-7, 7-5, 6-2 |
| Pol Martin Tiffon | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | 1-1 W 2-6, 6-4, 7-6, L 4-6, 6-3, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Tomas Barrios Vera | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-7, 6-2 |
1-0 W 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
| Yi Zhou | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-16: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Luka Pavlovic 40% at +159
Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin: quick answers
Who will win Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Ilia Simakin, giving them a 60% chance to win against Luka Pavlovic (40%).
What is the head-to-head record between Luka Pavlovic and Ilia Simakin?
Ilia Simakin leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 5, 2026, won by Ilia Simakin 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Luka Pavlovic or Ilia Simakin?
Luka Pavlovic is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Ilia Simakin is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Luka Pavlovic and Ilia Simakin?
Luka Pavlovic is rated 6606 (ATP #345) and Ilia Simakin is rated 6623 (ATP #318). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin?
Luka Pavlovic is priced at +159 and Ilia Simakin at -227, which implies a 39% and 69% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.