Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Jacob Fearnley, giving them a 65% chance to win against Hugo Gaston (35%). Jacob Fearnley leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Fearnley is 7-3 in their last 10, Gaston 5-5. At -159, the odds imply 61% for Jacob Fearnley, below the model's 65%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Jacob Fearnley a 65% favorite. At -159 the sportsbook implies 61% for Jacob Fearnley, 4 points below the model's 65%.
Model minus book: +4 pts
Model minus book: -10 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Jacob Fearnley at -159 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Jacob Fearnley | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6838 | 6796 |
| Tour rank | ATP #89 | ATP #121 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 7-2 | 4-4 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 38-26 | 34-30 |
| UTR | 15.28 | 14.87 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1728 | 1677 |
| Best surface | Grass | Clay |
| Worst surface | Hard | Hard |
Head to head
Jacob Fearnley leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | 6-3, 6-0 | Belgium Brussels |
Recent form
Jacob Fearnley, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Arthur Fery | L | 5-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Lorenzo Sonego | W | 6-1, 6-7, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Pablo Carreno Busta | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 21.10.2026 | Clement Chidekh | L | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 20.10.2026 | Hugo Gaston | W | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 18.10.2026 | Damir Dzumhur | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 17.10.2026 | Luca Nardi | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Maxim Mrva | W | 6-0, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Maxim Mrva | W | 6-0, 7-6 |
| 15.10.2026 | Jan Kumstat | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
Hugo Gaston, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Moise Kouame | L | 7-5, 2-1 |
| 28.10.2026 | Daniil Glinka | W | 6-7, 7-6, 6-1 |
| 20.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 16.10.2026 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 14.10.2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | W | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Daniel Jade | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 05.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 27.09.2026 | Andrey Rublev | L | 6-7, 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.09.2026 | Jaime Faria | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 24.09.2026 | Sho Shimabukuro | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Jacob Fearnley | Hugo Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Oconnell | 1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
| Damir Dzumhur | 1-1 L 7-6, 6-3, W 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 5-0 |
| Darwin Blanch | 2-0 W 6-3, 6-3, W 7-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-3, 6-0 |
| Keegan Smith | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
1-0 W 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Martin Landaluce | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-3, 10-7 |
0-2 L 6-1, 7-6, L 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Sebastian Ofner | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
1-1 L 6-4, 6-2, W 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Titouan Droguet | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-7, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-0, 6-3 |
Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston: quick answers
Who will win Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Jacob Fearnley, giving them a 65% chance to win against Hugo Gaston (35%).
What is the head-to-head record between Jacob Fearnley and Hugo Gaston?
Jacob Fearnley leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Jacob Fearnley 6-3, 6-0 at Belgium Brussels.
Who is in better form, Jacob Fearnley or Hugo Gaston?
Jacob Fearnley is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Hugo Gaston is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Jacob Fearnley and Hugo Gaston?
Jacob Fearnley is rated 6838 (ATP #89) and Hugo Gaston is rated 6796 (ATP #121). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston?
Jacob Fearnley is priced at -159 and Hugo Gaston at +125, which implies a 61% and 44% chance to win. The model rates Jacob Fearnley 4 points higher than the odds do (65% vs 61%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.