Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto
Updated
Rei Sakamoto beat Gabriel Diallo 2-6, 6-4, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Gabriel Diallo at 69%. Rei Sakamoto leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Diallo is 4-6 in their last 10, Sakamoto 8-2.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Gabriel Diallo a 69% favorite. At +127 the sportsbook implies 44% for Gabriel Diallo, 25 points below the model's 69%.
Model minus book: +25 pts
Model minus book: -33 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Gabriel Diallo at +127 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Gabriel Diallo | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6832 | 6775 |
| Tour rank | ATP #95 | ATP #134 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 1-0 | 6-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 12-21 | 50-26 |
| UTR | 15.48 | 14.85 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1704 | 1634 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Rei Sakamoto leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 | Kazakhstan Almaty |
Recent form
Gabriel Diallo, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Francesco Maestrelli | L | 6-4, 2-2 |
| 26.10.2026 | Nishesh Basavareddy | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 18.10.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | L | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Harold Mayot | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 05.08.2026 | Luciano Darderi | L | 6-4, 2-3 |
| 04.08.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | W | 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 |
| 28.07.2026 | Tristan Boyer | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 02.07.2026 | Lorenzo Sonego | L | 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-2 |
| 30.06.2026 | Benjamin Bonzi | W | 1-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-3, 3-1 |
| 25.06.2026 | Jack Draper | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
Rei Sakamoto, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Zhizhen Zhang | W | 6-0, 6-4 |
| 26.10.2026 | Kasidit Samrej | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Gabriel Diallo | W | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Amir Omarkhanov | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 11.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Andrey Rublev | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Marco Trungelliti | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 06.10.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | W | 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 05.10.2026 | Seong Chan Hong | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Gabriel Diallo | Rei Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Alex De Minaur | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
| Alex Molcan | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-0 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-0 W 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Kyrian Jacquet | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | 0-1 L 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-2, 7-6 |
| Yibing Wu | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-1 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-17: ATP Almaty (IX) (Kazakhstan), model gave Gabriel Diallo 69% at +127
Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto: quick answers
Who won Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto?
Rei Sakamoto beat Gabriel Diallo 2-6, 6-4, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Gabriel Diallo at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gabriel Diallo and Rei Sakamoto?
Rei Sakamoto leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 18, 2026, won by Rei Sakamoto 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 at Kazakhstan Almaty.
Who is in better form, Gabriel Diallo or Rei Sakamoto?
Gabriel Diallo is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Rei Sakamoto is 8-2 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Gabriel Diallo and Rei Sakamoto?
Gabriel Diallo is rated 6832 (ATP #95) and Rei Sakamoto is rated 6775 (ATP #134). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto?
Gabriel Diallo is priced at +127 and Rei Sakamoto at -175, which implies a 44% and 64% chance to win. The model rates Gabriel Diallo 25 points higher than the odds do (69% vs 44%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.