Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli
Updated
Maxim Mrva beat Francesco Maestrelli 6-3, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Maxim Mrva leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Mrva is 5-5 in their last 10, Maestrelli 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Maxim Mrva a 53% favorite. At +128 the sportsbook implies 44% for Maxim Mrva, 9 points below the model's 53%.
Model minus book: +9 pts
Model minus book: -18 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Maxim Mrva at +128 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Maxim Mrva | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6700 | 6700 |
| Tour rank | ATP #220 | ATP #219 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 36-32 | 26-31 |
| UTR | 14.33 | 14.24 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1509 | 1473 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Maxim Mrva leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Maxim Mrva | 6-3, 6-4 | Italy Olbia |
Recent form
Maxim Mrva, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10.2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | L | 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 |
| 18.10.2026 | Dusan Lajovic | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-0, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-0, 7-6 |
| 15.10.2026 | Francesco Maestrelli | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Hynek Barton | W | 6-2, 2-1 |
| 24.09.2026 | Izan Almazan Valiente | L | 7-5, 0-6, 6-2 |
| 22.09.2026 | Mykyta Mashtakov | W | 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 07.9.2026 | Marvin Moeller | L | 5-2 |
| 03.09.2026 | Federico Iannaccone | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
Francesco Maestrelli, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Gabriel Diallo | W | 6-4, 2-2 |
| 27.10.2026 | Moez Echargui | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 18.10.2026 | Borna Gojo | L | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 15.10.2026 | Maxim Mrva | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Mili Poljicak | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Oliver Tarvet | L | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 21.09.2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | L | 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 18.09.2026 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | L | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 17.09.2026 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.09.2026 | Arthur Nagel | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Maxim Mrva | Francesco Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Dusan Lajovic | 1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Kimmer Coppejans | 0-2 L 6-4, 2-6, 7-6, L 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Mathys Erhard | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6 |
| Mili Poljicak | 0-1 L 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
| Toby Samuel | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: ATP Olbia (X) (Italy), model gave Maxim Mrva 53% at +128
Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli: quick answers
Who won Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli?
Maxim Mrva beat Francesco Maestrelli 6-3, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Maxim Mrva and Francesco Maestrelli?
Maxim Mrva leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Maxim Mrva 6-3, 6-4 at Italy Olbia.
Who is in better form, Maxim Mrva or Francesco Maestrelli?
Maxim Mrva is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Francesco Maestrelli is 5-5 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Maxim Mrva and Francesco Maestrelli?
Maxim Mrva is rated 6700 (ATP #220) and Francesco Maestrelli is rated 6700 (ATP #219). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli?
Maxim Mrva is priced at +128 and Francesco Maestrelli at -185, which implies a 44% and 65% chance to win. The model rates Maxim Mrva 9 points higher than the odds do (53% vs 44%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.