Francesca Mattioli vs Kaya Moe
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Francesca Mattioli, giving them a 54% chance to win against Kaya Moe (46%). Francesca Mattioli leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Mattioli is 5-5 in their last 10, Moe 6-4. At +164, the odds imply 38% for Kaya Moe, below the model's 46%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Francesca Mattioli a 54% favorite. At +164 the sportsbook implies 38% for Kaya Moe, 8 points below the model's 46%.
Model minus book: -18 pts
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Kaya Moe at +164 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Francesca Mattioli | Kaya Moe | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6270 | 6123 |
| Tour rank | WTA #1096 | WTA #1590 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 4-5 | 3-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Win | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 28-20 | 29-15 |
| UTR | 10.37 | 10.11 |
Head to head
Francesca Mattioli leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Francesca Mattioli | 7-6, 3-6, 6-2 | USA UTR Pro Match Series |
Recent form
Francesca Mattioli, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Kaya Moe | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 28.10.2026 | Saray Yli Piipari | L | 6-1, 2-6, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Kaede Usui | L | 6-7, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 19.10.2026 | Mao Mushika | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 09.10.2026 | Edda Mamedova | L | 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 08.10.2026 | Victoria Bosio | W | 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Duru Soke | W | 7-6, 5-7, 7-5 |
| 06.10.2026 | Anita Sahdiieva | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 04.10.2026 | Cara Korhonen | W | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 01.10.2026 | Rose Marie Nijkamp | L | 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
Kaya Moe, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Francesca Mattioli | L | 7-6, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 28.10.2026 | Kaede Usui | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 27.10.2026 | Saray Yli Piipari | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Tegan Bush | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 09.10.2026 | Mia Robinson | W | 6-7, 7-6, 7-5 |
| 09.10.2026 | Emma Ascanio Tarife | W | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 27.09.2026 | Chiara Di Genova | L | 4-6, 6-4, 1-0 |
| 15.08.2026 | Ava Esposito Cogan | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 14.08.2026 | Amina Salibayeva | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 13.08.2026 | Audrey Aulia | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Francesca Mattioli | Kaya Moe |
|---|---|---|
| Emma Dong | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-4 |
| Kaede Usui | 0-1 L 6-7, 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Saray Yli Piipari | 0-2 L 6-1, 2-6, 7-6, L 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: WTA UTR Pro Match Series (exh.) (USA), model gave Francesca Mattioli 54% at -256
Francesca Mattioli vs Kaya Moe: quick answers
Who will win Francesca Mattioli vs Kaya Moe?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Francesca Mattioli, giving them a 54% chance to win against Kaya Moe (46%).
What is the head-to-head record between Francesca Mattioli and Kaya Moe?
Francesca Mattioli leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Francesca Mattioli 7-6, 3-6, 6-2 at USA UTR Pro Match Series.
Who is in better form, Francesca Mattioli or Kaya Moe?
Francesca Mattioli is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Win). Kaya Moe is 6-4 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Francesca Mattioli and Kaya Moe?
Francesca Mattioli is rated 6270 (WTA #1096) and Kaya Moe is rated 6123 (WTA #1590). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Francesca Mattioli vs Kaya Moe?
Francesca Mattioli is priced at -256 and Kaya Moe at +164, which implies a 72% and 38% chance to win. The model rates Kaya Moe 8 points higher than the odds do (46% vs 38%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.