Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Flavio Cobolli, giving them a 66% chance to win against Matteo Berrettini (34%). Matteo Berrettini leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Cobolli is 4-6 in their last 10, Berrettini 5-5. At -111, the odds imply 53% for Flavio Cobolli, below the model's 66%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Flavio Cobolli a 66% favorite. At -111 the sportsbook implies 53% for Flavio Cobolli, 14 points below the model's 66%.
Model minus book: +14 pts
Model minus book: -17 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Flavio Cobolli at -111 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Flavio Cobolli | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6924 | 6903 |
| Tour rank | ATP #24 | ATP #40 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 40-26 | 27-20 |
| UTR | 15.86 | 15.8 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1873 | 1822 |
| Best surface | Grass | Grass |
| Worst surface | Hard | Hard |
Head to head
Matteo Berrettini leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Matteo Berrettini | 5-2 | Austria Wien |
Recent form
Flavio Cobolli, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Matteo Berrettini | L | 5-2 |
| 27.10.2026 | Grigor Dimitrov | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | L | 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Stan Wawrinka | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | L | 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 01.10.2026 | Roman Safiullin | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 26.09.2026 | Learner Tien | L | 6-3, 2-6, 10-7 |
| 05.09.2026 | Alexander Blockx | L | 6-7, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 |
| 03.09.2026 | Tristan Schoolkate | W | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 |
Matteo Berrettini, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Flavio Cobolli | W | 5-2 |
| 26.10.2026 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 09.10.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 07.10.2026 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 03.10.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W | 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 03.09.2026 | Mariano Navone | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 31.08.2026 | Stan Wawrinka | W | 7-6, 7-6, 6-0 |
| 16.08.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Flavio Cobolli | Matteo Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
| Adrian Mannarino | 0-1 L 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
| Alexander Zverev | 1-2 L 6-1, 4-6, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1, L 6-1, 6-4, W 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Arthur Fils | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0-1 L 6-7, 7-6, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 7-5 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 1-0 W 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-0, 6-0 |
| Francisco Comesana | 2-0 W 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, W 7-5, 2-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 5-7, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 1-0 W 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 5-7, 6-3 |
| Ignacio Buse | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-5 |
0-2 L 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, L 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 |
| Learner Tien | 1-1 L 6-3, 2-6, 10-7, W 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Mariano Navone | 1-0 W 1-6, 7-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
1-2 L 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6, L 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, W 7-5, 6-3 |
| Raphael Collignon | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Stan Wawrinka | 2-0 W 6-2, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 |
2-0 W 7-6, 7-6, 6-0, W 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| Tristan Schoolkate | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
| Vit Kopriva | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Flavio Cobolli 66% at -111
Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini: quick answers
Who will win Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Flavio Cobolli, giving them a 66% chance to win against Matteo Berrettini (34%).
What is the head-to-head record between Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Berrettini?
Matteo Berrettini leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Matteo Berrettini 5-2 at Austria Wien.
Who is in better form, Flavio Cobolli or Matteo Berrettini?
Flavio Cobolli is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Matteo Berrettini is 5-5 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Berrettini?
Flavio Cobolli is rated 6924 (ATP #24) and Matteo Berrettini is rated 6903 (ATP #40). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini?
Flavio Cobolli is priced at -111 and Matteo Berrettini at -105, which implies a 53% and 51% chance to win. The model rates Flavio Cobolli 14 points higher than the odds do (66% vs 53%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.