Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Updated
Felix Auger Aliassime beat Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3, 4-6, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Felix Auger Aliassime leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Busta is 4-6 in their last 10, Aliassime 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Felix Auger Aliassime a 77% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -1 pts
Model minus book: -4 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Felix Auger Aliassime at -417 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6902 | 6941 |
| Tour rank | ATP #41 | ATP #17 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 33-25 | 41-20 |
| UTR | 15.71 | 16.07 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1768 | 1963 |
| Best surface | Clay | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Clay |
Head to head
Felix Auger Aliassime leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10.2026 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Pablo Carreno Busta, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Felix Auger Aliassime | L | 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Mariano Navone | W | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 29.09.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 28.09.2026 | Yi Zhou | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 30.08.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | L | 6-1, 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 |
| 24.08.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L | 6-4, 3-0 |
| 16.08.2026 | Andrey Rublev | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
Felix Auger Aliassime, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Casper Ruud | L | 5-2 |
| 12.10.2026 | Pablo Carreno Busta | W | 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W | 4-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
| 30.09.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 19.09.2026 | Arthur Rinderknech | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 19.09.2026 | Quentin Halys | W | 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 03.09.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-7, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 01.09.2026 | Rinky Hijikata | W | 7-5, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 20.08.2026 | Frances Tiafoe | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 19.08.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W | 7-5, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Pablo Carreno Busta | Felix Auger Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-7, 7-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 1-1 W 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, L 6-2, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-5, 6-1 |
| Andrey Rublev | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
1-0 W 11-18, 18-11, 7-18, 14-13, 3-2 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0-1 L 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 16-10, 13-20, 11-16, 14-12, 2-1 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 1-2 L 6-1, 7-6, 4-6, 6-2, W 6-3, 7-6, 6-3, L 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6 |
| Mariano Navone | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 7-6 |
| Marton Fucsovics | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-3, 6-4, W 7-6, 7-5 |
| Quentin Halys | 0-1 L 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Vilius Gaubas | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Vit Kopriva | 0-1 L 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-1 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-11: ATP Shangai - Masters (China), model gave Pablo Carreno Busta 23% at +320
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger Aliassime: quick answers
Who won Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Felix Auger Aliassime beat Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3, 4-6, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Pablo Carreno Busta and Felix Auger Aliassime?
Felix Auger Aliassime leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 12, 2026, won by Felix Auger Aliassime 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Pablo Carreno Busta or Felix Auger Aliassime?
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Felix Auger Aliassime is 6-4 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Pablo Carreno Busta and Felix Auger Aliassime?
Pablo Carreno Busta is rated 6902 (ATP #41) and Felix Auger Aliassime is rated 6941 (ATP #17). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Pablo Carreno Busta is priced at +320 and Felix Auger Aliassime at -417, which implies a 24% and 81% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.